Hail in West Virginia, June 16, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
303 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2002

...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

COUPLE OF MINOR CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM.  FIRST...ONGOING
ACTIVITY OVER SRN WV/ERN KY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND PASSING
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM.  FELL NORTHERN CELLS WILL MOSTLY EXIT REGION AT OR
SHORTLY AFTER ZONE ISSUANCE...BUT CHANCE OF -SHRA WILL LINGER FOR A
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE FAR SW. WILL HAVE EARLY EVENING CHANCE POP
THERE...SILENT 20 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE AFTER SUNSET AS HEATING WANES AND SHORTWAVE EXITS.

LAST SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES DIVES JUST NORTH OF CWA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT ZONES HAVE 30 POP FOR AFTERNOON -SHRA.
WAVERED BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER TO REMOVE IT DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE...BUT CONTINUITY WON OUT AND DECIDED TO LEAVE IT IN.

UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL AWAY ON MONDAY...AND HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE.  SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY COOL TUESDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES BREAK 80 IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS BY TUESDAY AS 580 HEIGHT LINE REACHES CWA.

...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR BUILDING A RATHER STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEK...BUT NO RAIN.  RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AND ALLOWS A FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD
TO AT LEAST NORTHERN OHIO BY SATURDAY...BUT HPC FEELS THE FRONT WILL
BE FARTHER SOUTH PER EURO MODELS AS COMPARED TO MRF.  THIS BRINGS A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL WARM AND HUMID.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

.END/CL/JMV

WVZ015-027-036>038-162115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2002

BRIEF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WERE RACING EAST...THROUGH
KANAWHA...CLAY...AND NICHOLAS COUNTIES.
AT 4:15 PM...THE HEAVIEST SHOWER WAS NORTH OF THE TOWN OF
CLAY...BETWEEN IVYDALE AND DUCK.

THE SHOWERS WERE HEADED TOWARD WEBSTER COUNTY.

WITH COOL AIR ALOFT...SOME SMALL HAIL IS EASILY POSSIBLE IN THESE
BRIEF SHOWERS.

END / KTB

WVZ027-028-037-038-046-047-162230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
527 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2002

BRIEF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RACING EAST...THROUGH CLAY...
NICHOLAS...WEBSTER...SOUTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES.  THIS RAIN
WAS HEADING INTO POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

NEAR 5:30 PM...THE HEAVIEST SHOWER WAS OVER NORTHERN NICHOLAS
COUNTY...JUST SOUTH OF BIRCH RIVER.  THIS PARTICULAR SHOWER
WAS HEADED TOWARD THE COWEN TO CRAIGSVILLE VICINITY.

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WAS MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE BRIEF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

END / KTB