Tornadoes and Hail in New York, June 16, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY
340 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2002

WORKZONES AVAILABLE. LOOK FOR A 4 AM LAUNCH.

.DISC...NAGGING UA TROUGH FINALLY SLOWLY ON THE MOVE AND WEAKENING.
RGL RADARS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER CLD TO GRD LTG STRIKES EARLIER ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO HAVE ALL BUT DISAPPEARED. TWO
SHORTWAVES...AND A WEAK OCCLD BOUNDARY...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE
ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND OCC FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BIG WX PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION COULD
BECOME SEVERE. PLUGGING VALUES INTO THE MAGLENTA EQ FROM THE ETA
BUFKIT GAVE US A VALUE AT KALY OF 2.25...WHICH WOULD PLACE US INTO A
MAJOR SEVERE EVENT (ASSUMING CONVECTION IS REALIZED).
HOWEVER...THE MESO-ETA BUFKIT WAS GENTLER...GIVING A VALUE OF
2.75...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A MORE  MINOR EVENT.

SFC BASED CAPES WERE PROGGED BY BUFKIT TO BE IN THE 300-600 J/KG
RANGE...WHILE THE AWIPS SOUNDINGS (AS USUAL) INDICATE MUCH HIGHER
CAPES APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. THEY APPEAR TOO HIGH
SO WILL GO MORE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS VALUES. EITHER WAY...AFTER
PERUSING THE ENTIRE LOCAL SEVERE WX CHECKLIST...WE STILL THINK THE
THREAT OF SVR IS VERY SMALL TODAY. (THERE COULD BE A PULSER TYPE
ISLD SVR OR 2). THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE SFC TDS <
15C...CWA NOT UNDER THE RR OR LF QUAD OF THE H2.5 JET...THE SURFACE
CAPES BELOW THE ABUNDANT THRESHOLD...AND THE BULK RICHARD NUMBER
IS LESS THAN 10 WHICH IMPLIES TOO MUCH SHEAR AND NOT BUOYANCY.
HOWEVER...THE WBZ IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF 7KFT...WHICH
IS PRIME FOR HAIL. THEREFORE...WILL ADD QUALIFIER TO
THUNDERSTORMS...MIGHT CONTAIN HAIL. WE BELIEVE THAT MOST HAIL WILL
BE OF THE PEA-SIZE VARIETY...BUT THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF
LARGER HAIL. OF COURSE THE INCOMING DAYCREW SHOULD RE-EXAMINE ALL
THE PARAMETERS BASED ON THE 12Z DATA.

SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS
AWAY...BUT WITH WEAK NVA AND STABILIZATION LATER ON...WILL KEEP THE
OVERNIGHT PORTION DRY. ON MONDAY...WHILE THE UA LOW IS TO OUR
EAST...A COLD POCKET WILL REMAIN OVER US ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE TWO FACTORS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SFC BASED CAPES STILL RISE TO ABOUT 300
OR SO BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDER AS IT LOOKS AS OF
CONVECTION MIGHT BE EVEN MORE LOW-TOPPED THAN TODAY. THE COLD POCKET
REMAINS AT H5 NOT ONLY TUE...BUT INTO AT LEAST EARLY WED. WILL LEAVE
THE CHC IN FOR TUE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP WED DRY (CAN GEM SUPPORTS A
DRY FORECAST) BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP.

THE 00Z AVN NOW INDICATES A STRONG UA RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY COME THURSDAY...AND FINALLY START DRIVING SOME SUMMER HEAT
OUR WAY. THIS SCENARIO COULD SIG CHANGE THE EXTENDED. FOR NOW...JUST
RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE ON THU/FRI AND LEFT SAT ALONE.

THE ETA/FWC AND MAV NOS ARE GENERALLY IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND
WILL NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THEM.

.HYDROLOGIC STATUS...BASIN QPF AVERAGES TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO. TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DRAINAGE PROBLEMS... BUT DON/T EXPECT TSTMS TO BE
WDSPRD ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS.

.ALY...NONE.

HWJIV