High Wind in Washington, December 24 to 25, 2002

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PST TUE DEC 24 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST LATE TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS ALONG
THE COAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...THEN A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. COOL SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM ON MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY WITH A COOL...SHOWERY PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OUT NEAR 47N/135W WITH AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO THE WEST. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
PREVIOUS TREND OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING THIS SYSTEM WITH THE MOIST
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEM STALLS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TOMORROW AS A
DEVELOPING WAVE RIDES UP THE FRONT. MESO/AVN CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STRONG GRADIENT WITH FRONT FOR GALE WARNING TONIGHT. MESO BDRY
LAYER/925 MB WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO SUPPORT LOW END HIGH
WIND EVENT FOR COASTAL STRIP VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING.
WILL UPGRADE EXISTING HIGH WIND WATCH TO WARNING WITH AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. FRONT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. 18Z MESO SHOWS DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP
OVER NORTHERN OREGON AND SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT. MAY NEED SNOW ADVISORY AS WE EXTEND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS TO LATER SHIFTS SINCE THIS IS THIRD AND
FOURTH PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM
ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH WIND EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE COAST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY DUE
TO THE INTENSE CIRCULATION NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

.LONG TERM...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOR A
COOL SHOWERY DAY. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LATEST MFR SHOWS WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS
DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS RUN.  FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  TW

AST 678789  PDX 468678  SLE 458778  EUG 448778

.PQR...GALE WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE TONIGHT THROUGH
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
       HIGH WIND WARNING COASTAL STRIP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
       EVENING.

ORZ001>013-WAZ019>023-039-040-251430-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
630 AM PST TUE DEC 24 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...

GALE WARNING FOR LATER TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON COASTAL HEADLANDS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

GALE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH WIND WATCH SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL HEADLANDS CHRISTMAS
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. POSSIBLE SNOW ADVISORY IN THE CASCADES
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

POSSIBLE GALE OR STORM WARNING AND HIGH WINDS AT THE COAST
FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS. POSSIBLE SNOW ADVISORY
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SHOULD UNEXPECTED CONDITIONS ARISE SPOTTERS SHOULD CALL IN AS PER
THEIR SPOTTER CALL IN CRITERIA.