High Wind in Washington, April 13 to 14, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
855 PM PDT SAT APR 13 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT. WIND...RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOUNTAINS SNOWS ON SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBS SHOW COLD FRONT PASSED BUOY 5 AT 01Z. COLD
FRONT AT 03Z ALONG 129W. EXTRAPOLATING THIS PUTS THE FRONT ALONG THE
COAST AROUND 07Z AND THROUGH KSEA AROUND 09Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HINTING AT TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 46.7N/129W. CURRENT TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE WOULD TAKE IT OVER THE OLYMPICS WITH SIMILAR TIMING
AS THE FRONT. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT WITH KOLM-KBLI NOW UP TO PLUS 4 AND KSEA-KOTH
PLUS 9.6. BUOY 5 POST FRONTAL WINDS PEAKING IN THE MID 40S WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. FIRST
LOOK AT THE NEW MESOETA SHOWS FOR THE MOST PART LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE 18Z RUN WITH THE MODEL TIMING OF THE FRONT SIMILAR TO THE
EXTRAPOLATION. ONE FEATURE THAT IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT IS THE NEW RUN
HAS A WEAKER LEE SIDE LOW EAST OF THE OLYMPICS BUT LOOKING AT THE
ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING 35-40 KNOTS AT 850 MB AT 03Z AND THE MODEL
INDICATING AN INCREASE IN THE 850 MB IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS WILL STAY
WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE HOOD CANAL AREA. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL STAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNINGS AS
WELL. BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG PRESSURE RISES...8 MB IN 6 HOURS WILL
KEEP THE WINDS UP ESPECIALLY IN THE PUGET SOUND AREA. COLD AIR MOVES
IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO NEAR 2000
FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GOOD OROGRAPHICS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH THE 850 MB WINDS REMAINING AROUND 30 KNOTS. WILL STAY WITH THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CASCADES. COLD UPPER TROUGH REMAINING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. ON THE
HYDRO SIDE WYNOOCHEE DAM REPORTED 0.54 INCHES OF RAIN LAST HOUR. WILL
ISSUE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SKOKOMISH. felton

UIL +987  SEA +776  OLM +666

.SEW...STORM NORTH COAST...ADMIRALTY INLET...HOOD CANAL.
       GALE WARNING REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
       HIGH WIND WARNING COAST...NORTHWEST INTERIOR...HOOD CANAL
       AREA.
       WINTER STORM WARNING CASCADES SUNDAY.
       FLOOD WARNING SKOKOMISH RIVER.

.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.