Heavy Snow in Utah, March 23 to 24, 2002

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
320 PM MST SAT MAR 23 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UTAH TONIGHT.  A COOL
AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WELL INLAND NOW WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLDER AIR CURRENTLY ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER.  PLENTY OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIR...
THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP AT TIME.

THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT.  STRONG
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SUPPORTED BY STRONG FLOW ALOFT UP TROUGH 700
MB HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SRN UT THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE WINDS SHOULD
DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND MIDEVENING AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
WINDS DECOUPLE.  ONE REAL PROBLEM AREA WILL BE S/CNTRL UT.  HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY TO COVER THAT AREA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIP...AT LEAST THAT WHICH IS MEASURABLE...SHOULD
OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE COLDER AIR ALOFT.
THE TROUGH ITSELF WEAKENS AS IT SETTLES OVER THE REGION...THOUGH WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP OUT OF THIS TYPE
OF AIRMASS.  COULD SEE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALLS IN THE NRN
MOUNTAINS...SO WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY TO COVER THE SITUATION.

SHOWERY PRECIP A GOOD BET STATEWIDE ON SUNDAY.  HAD THOUGHT EARLIER
THAT SRN UT COULD BE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE OLD BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND THE JET NEARBY...BUT THIS NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A BIT
TOO FAR TO SOUTH.  STILL SCATTERED SHOWERY PRECIP LOOKS FINE...WITH
A LITTLE BETTER THREAT FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS THE RIDGING ALOFT FOLLOWS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.  LATEST AVN STILL HOLDING ON TO FORMING A CLOSED
LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST LATE MONDAY...THEN KEEPING THIS FEATURE
ALONG THE SRN CA COAST INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  OTHER THAN
SENDING MOISTURE INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE...DONT SEE ANYTHING
MORE THAN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE NORTH
MAY BE A BIT TRICKIER AS SHORTWAVES RIPPLING EAST THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES COULD CLIP THE FAR NRN ZONES.

SLC 7543  CDC 5551   CONGER

.SLC...SNOW ADVISORY NRN MOUNTAIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
       /UTZ007>010-IDZ025/
    ...WIND ADVISORY SOUTH CENTRAL VALLEYS THROUGH 04Z
       /UTZ020-021/.