Damaging Winds in California, March 23, 2002

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
930 AM PST SAT MAR 23 2002

MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH AXIS WHICH SWUNG THROUGH
CENTRAL CA EARLIER THIS MORNING BROUGHT MORE SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS. AWIPS
LIGHTNING DETECTION INDICATED SOME T-STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WHICH CORRESPONDED WELL WITH AN AREA OF
MODEL PROJECTED CAPES OF AROUND 800 J/KG. SNOTEL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE 13 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL AT UPPER BURNT CORRAL WHICH
VERIFIED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 96 AND 7 INCHES OF NEW
SNOWFALL AT PASCOES WHICH VERIFIED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZONE 97.
KHNX 88D INDICATING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS SO WILL KEEP THE PRESENT WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS OUT FOR ZONES 96 AND 97. PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY WAS A DIFFERENT STORY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH.

VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY HAVE CLEARED OUT...ALTHOUGH KHNX 88D IS INDICATING A BAND OF
LIGHT SHOWERS IN MERCED AND NW FRESNO COUNTIES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE
THAN ANTICIPATED EARLIER WILL NEED TO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. POPS STILL LOOK GOOD AS INCREASED SURFACE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUED CAA ALOFT. WILL REWORD HOWEVER TO EMPHASIZE BEST CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON. PROJECTED CAPES AND LI/S STILL IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE T-STORMS. CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS CROSS SECTIONS OF
GEOPOTENTIAL MOMENTUM AND POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY PARALLEL
IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 12Z ETA/NGM/AVN
ARE ALL FURTHER WEST WITH A VORT MAX WHICH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CA SUNDAY. THIS MIGHT KEEP A THREAT A SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN ZONES WELL INTO SUNDAY...AS WELL AS BRING INCREASED WINDS TO
THE RAIN SHADOWED KERN DESERTS. MAY NEED TO ISSUE MORE WINTER WEATHER
AND/OR WIND HIGHLIGHTS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

AFTER A RESPITE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY...THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A MESS AS THE ETA...NGM AND AVN
ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT MIGHT AFFECT
CENTRAL CA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. THE EXTENDED PROGS...OF COURSE...
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

ZONE UPDATES UPCOMING.

.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
       FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
    ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE
       5000 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

DS