Heavy Snow in Utah, January 15, 2002

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
530 AM MST TUE JAN 15 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD BUT WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO UTAH
THIS MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE
FAR SOUTH.

.DISCUSSION...COLD UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST THIS MORNING IS
SOMEWHAT STARVED FOR MOISTURE. STILL...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS TO ABOUT DELTA. MEANWHILE, BACKING FLOW ALOFT
HAS BROUGHT SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS INTO THE SOUTH THAT SHOULD LAST INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AGAIN. SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED
TOO FAR SOUTH FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...
SO JUST HAVE BREEZY MENTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE STAYS
OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT AS AIRMASS COOLS, KEEPING THREAT OF SNOW
GOING. LIGHT SNOW COULD PERSIST OVER THE NRN MTNS THRU WED IN THE
COLD AIRMASS WHILE THE VALLEYS DRY. LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT
HAS BEEN FORECAST TO SET UP SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND LAST INTO THU IS NOW FORECAST TO FORM A BIT FARTHER NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED 700 MB CIRCULATION THAT GETS
LEFT BEHIND OVER SRN NV. SO HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST SRN
ZONES EXCEPT DIXIE THRU WED NIGHT.

NEXT COLD TROF TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH ON THU NOW MORE OF A
CLOSED FEATURE IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD BRING AN EVEN
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI...BUT LEFT EXISTING
CHANCE POPS PRETTY MUCH ALONE DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN MODELS.

COLD SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND...AND NEW MRF CARVES QUITE A TROF
OUT OVER THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. KEPT BROAD BRUSH CHANCE OF
SNOW GOING FOR THE NORTH THRU DAY 7 AND LEFT IT GENERALLY DRY OVER
THE SOUTH.

SLC 661  CDC 222  WILENSKY

.SLC...NONE.