Texas, 2002

Flood in Texas, October 10 to 11, 2002

October 10 to 11, 2002 · NWS EWX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 10, 2:55 AM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 10, 2:55 AM CST, 2 hours 12 minutes before
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
300 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2002

CURRENT WEATHER ANALYSIS...
AT THE SURFACE...A PRESSURE RIDGE EXISTS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
CONUS REGION...EXTENDING TO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWEST TO OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS...WITH ANOTHER RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS EXISTS FROM THE PACIFIC/BAJA REGION NORTHWARD INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE GREAT BASIN. AT 500MB...PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND A
WEAK LOW CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. AS SEEN BY IR/WV SATELLITE...A
PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TAPS EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

MODEL GUIDANCE ANALYSIS...
AVN PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE HAS DECREASING VALUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MRF...AVN...ETA AND NGM 500MB GUIDANCE MOVES THE LOW
OVER NEW MEXICO NORTHEAST BY NOON TODAY...BUILDS THE CARIBBEAN HIGH
OVER THE GULF AND MEXICO AND SWEEPS A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
REGION BY 72 HOURS. THE MRF...AVN...ETA AND NGM SURFACE GUIDANCE
MOVES SWEEPS A TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY 72 HOURS WITH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE TROUGH.

CURRENT WEATHER OUTLOOK...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING NORTHEAST AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN.
COOLER/DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST WARNING AREA. THE PACIFIC/BAJA TAPE INTO SOUTH
TEXAS MAY PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TO THE WEEKEND AND A SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE
STATE OF TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AUS 83/60/85/63/85 00003
DRT 85/63/87/65/87 00003
SAT 85/63/85/65/87 00003

.EWX...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 10, 4:00 AM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes before
TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-102145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
500 AM CDT THU OCT 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU SOUTH TEXAS.  COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Karnes

When
October 10, 5:07 AM CST to October 11, 5:34 AM CST
Where
Karnes forecast zone
Reported by
OTHER FEDERAL AGENCY
Coordinates
28.906, -97.859 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Cibolo Creek crested at Falls City at 26.9 feet on October 10 at 1515CST, where 17.0 feet is flood stage.

What these are

Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2002Every state in 2002This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2002

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5319319.