Tornado and Flash Flooding in Texas, May 27, 2002

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
105 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

A FORECAST SLOGAN I PICKED UP IN NEW ORLEANS WAS IF IT RAINS BEFORE
10 IT WILL RAIN AGAIN...NOT THAT W TEXAS WEATHER IS ANYTHING LIKE
NEW ORLEANS...BUT I DID GET LIGHT RAIN DRIVING INTO WORK THIS
MORNING...SO BASED ON THE SLOGAN...IT WILL RAIN AGAIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GREETED MANY A BARBEQUE AND POOL PARTY
THIS MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX.  AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
RESPONDS TO IMPULSES SPINNING AROUND THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  THINGS DONT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...SO CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN.  NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD ALL INTERACT TO SPAWN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT TOWARD
THE BIG COUNTRY.

MOST OF OUR AREA HAS SEEN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY...CLEARER CONDITIONS
TO OUR WEST SHOULD ALLOW GOOD HEATING TO FIRE UP STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST THEY WILL HAVE
ACCESS TO AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT.
AMPLE SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
VEERING SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION/ POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.

STORMS ARE STARTING TO GO SEVERE WITH A WATCH TOO...SO THAT WILL PUT
AN END TO THE THIS DISCUSSION...WITH HIGH BUILDING WILL TAKE OUT
MENTION OF RAIN AFTER WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMS...

ABI 067/087/065  5452
SJT 068/091/066  4232
JCT 066/090/067  4222

.SJT...NONE.

25

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-271500-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
735 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF
NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
THE AREA TODAY...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY WHERE THE INTERSECTION OF THE
DRYLINE AND A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO HELP FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
OF A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY...WHERE BETTER WIND SHEAR WILL
PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION WITH ALL OF THE RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE BIG COUNTRY THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A THREAT
AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.

27/BRAZZELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO, TX
0940 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

ADDED SOME LATER REPORTS

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0917 PM    5 NW MARYNEAL             TX   TORNADO
05/26/02   NOLAN                          BRIEF TOUCHDOWN

0919 PM    ROSCOE                    TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/26/02   NOLAN

0929 PM    VIEW                      TX   65 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
05/26/02   TAYLOR                         REPORTED BY SKYWARN SPOTTER

1030 PM    ROSCOE 12S                TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/26/02   NOLAN

1040 PM    SWEETWATER 1N             TX   0.88 INCH HAIL
5/26/02    NOLAN

1048 PM    8 E BLACKWELL             TX   TORNADO
05/26/02   NOLAN                          BRIEF TOUCHDOWN

0005 AM    NOLAN                     TX   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/27/02   NOLAN                          WIND BROKE SECURITY
                                          LIGHT