Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, May 27, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
140 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

...STORM CHCS TONIGHT MAIN PROBLEM...

RECOVERY ONGOING THIS AFTN IN WAKE OF LAST EVENINGS ACTIVITY.
MESO HIGH WAS STILL EVIDENT IN SFC PLOTS EARLIER THIS AM OVR SE NE.
APPEARS FM SFC WINDS THAT OLD OUTFLW BNDRY EXTENDS ACRS NRN KS.
OLD SYNOPTIC BNDRY STILL APPEARS TO BE PLACE OVR NRN NE AS WELL.
SITU CONTS QUITE DIFFUSE IN TERMS OF LG SCALE TRIGGER BUT WK SW
TROF EMBEDDED WITH SRN EDGE OF NRN STREAM WESTERLIES ALG WY/NE
BORDER SHLD PROVIDE ENOUGH IMPETUS COMBINED WITH FVRBL ERLY UPSLOPE
FLW TO FIRE CONVN AGAIN LT THIS AFTN OVR WRN NE.

ALTHOUGH MODELS QUITE AGREEABLE IN LG SCALE SENSE...FINITE DETAILS
QUITE DIFFERENT. ETA/META/RUC ALL AGREE ON LT AFTN/EARLY EVE
DVLPMNTS ALG OLD OUTFLW ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NE AND OVR WRN NE. PROB
W/KS ACTIVITY IS INHERENTLY WK MID LVL FLW AND HOW THAT ACTIVITY WILL
PROPAGATE. STORMS THAT DO FIRE FURTHER N IN REGION OF BTR MID LVL
FLW AND SHLD PROPAGATE E INTO CENTRAL NE AFT DARK. ALTHOUGH
PROGGED INSTABILITY GREAT...SIG LACK OF DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL STAVE
OFF WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT OVR GID CWA. ON TUE/TUE NIGHT...SRN STREAM
CUTOFF OVR OK LOOKS TO GARNER THE MOST ATTN. LTL UNCERTAINTY HERE
GIVEN OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE COLL IN PLACE. BY WED...MORE ENERGETIC
SYS DRIVING THRU FLAT WESTERLIES ALG US/CAN BORDER...WILL REFOCUS OLD
SYNOPTIC FNT ACRS NE ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER AT LEAST SLGT STORM CHC BY
AFTN.

IN THE EXTNDD...FAIRLY BLOCKED PATTN CONTS SO NO BIG CHGS XPCD. SWRN
UPR RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EWD IN RESPONSE TO DEEP SYS PIN-WHEELING
THRU BEARING STRAITS. THIS ALLOWS FOR INHERENT SHIFT IN THERMAL RIDGE
OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND WARMING TEMPS INTO LATE WEEK. HWVR...PENDING
HOW RENEWED DOWNSTREAM TROFFING THRU ERN US BY NXT WEEKEND TAKES
PLACE...NXT WEEKEND INTO NXT WEEK COULD END UP QUITE WET AGAIN GIVEN
FVRBL UPR RIDGE POSITION AND CONTD ONSLAUGHT OF NRN STREAM WV TRAIN.

.GID...NONE.

TEH

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
653 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS A PORTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS A PART OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MOST LIKELY WEST OF A FULLERTON...TO GRAND
ISLAND...TO HOLDREGE LINE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING...AND INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND
SHIFT EAST BY LATE EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME OF SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE BETWEEN
8 PM AND 2 AM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

AS THE STORMS CONTINUE EAST LATE THIS EVENING...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REST SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6. SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS
SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY...AND BE PREPARED TO ACTIVATE
AS NECESSARY.

MORITZ