Hail in Texas, May 23, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2002

UPDATE ALREADY SENT TO REFLECT INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTHEAST CWFA WITH SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK CONVECTION. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THUS MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT HAD MADE IT INTO THE FAR NW CWFA BUT SHOULD
STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.LUB...NONE.

SGE

TXZ021>044-222230-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS.

WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.  BY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS THE EDGE
OF THE CAPROCK.  AS A RESULT THE BEST THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS.

TXZ021>044-232100-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS...GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SILVERTON TO MATADOR
TO PADUCAH.

LATE THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
DISTURBANCE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RISK AREA WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE DRYLINE BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
HIGH BASED THUS DECREASING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE
AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.

JAMES