Hail in Kansas, May 23, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WESTERN CONUS TROF AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND UPPER LEVEL CHARTS THIS MORNING WITH 90KT 250MB JET STREAK
ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA. WEAK COOL TROF WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS AT 500MB AND WITH AID OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK, CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND BRUSHED BARBER COUNTY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
QUICKLY MOVED SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND HAD
PUSHED THROUGH P28 BY 18Z BUT WAS SLOWING DOWN WITH MORE EASTERLY
FLOW AND PRESSURES FALLING QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE JET STREAK AND WITH
WARMING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

ONGOING CONVECTION AND ITS REMNANTS MAKING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY FOR THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. AS
UPPER TROF SLIDES EAST OVER COLORADO TONIGHT, INCREASING FLOW OVER
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PRODUCE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE NEAREST THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE IS THE RICHEST PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCES POPS IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
GOING LOWS LOOK GOOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 305K SURFACE CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF FRIDAY
AS THE WAVE ENTERS WESTERN KANSAS. WILL COUNT ON ENOUGH OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION TO REINFORCE THE COLD FRONT AND KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE
ZONES FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS. LIKELY POPS FOR ALL ZONES
CONTINUE TO APPEAR IN ORDER WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF DIURNAL
WARMING, CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE OUT OF THE ZONES BY MIDNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH THEN SINKS IN AND WITH CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL OF THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS, THE THREAT
OF FOG ARISES. WITH POSITION OF HIGH AND AMOUNT/LOCATION OF RAINFALL
YET TO BE SEEN, WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG OUT OF ZONES AT THIS TIME.
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S LOOK REASONABLE.

A SLOW RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH ZONAL FLOW AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY.

DAYS 3-7...

THE CURRENT EXTENDED IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NEAR 135W AND 30N WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM SYSTEM
NEAR 150W AND 35N. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO FAR SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND TO AFFECT KANSAS. HOWEVER, THE 2ND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME FOR STORMS. ONE FAVORABLE
FACTOR FOR STORMS WILL BE THE COLD AIR ALOFT AS THE AVN PROGS -14C
500MB TEMPS AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO AMPLE INSTABILITY. THERE IS A RISK THAT
MCSS COULD TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISS WESTERN KANSAS. BUT
CHANCE POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR NOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE RAISED IN
THE SE CORNER FOR EXPECTED HIGH DEWPOINTS. AFTER TUESDAY, THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA. SO WE WILL KEEP A DRY FCST. UPPER
RIDGING MAY BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE 8 TO 10 DAY PERIOD LOOKS
DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   52  56  43  74 /  70  70  30   0
GCK   50  55  41  75 /  60  70  10   0
EHA   49  57  43  77 /  50  60   0   0
LBL   53  57  43  75 /  60  70  10   0
HYS   47  52  43  73 /  60  70  50   0
P28   57  66  47  75 /  70  70  50   0

.DDC...NONE.

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