Hail in Texas, June 13, 2002

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
235 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2002

40-50KT 5H NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR 1012 MB SFC LOW LOCATED
NEAR PERRYTON WITH PLENTY OF COOL/MOIST SFC RIDGING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES. 10-15KT NORTHEAST MECHANICAL UPSLOPE
AND EASTERLY 8H FLOW SUGGEST DECENT CAPACITY FOR STORM ROTATION IF/AS
STORMS ORGANIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COOL FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR TS INITIATION. OTHER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THESE SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTHWEST SO
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS CLOSELY.

FCSTID = 13

AMARILLO    61 82 60 89 /  40 20 30 40
BEAVER      61 82 60 85 /  30 20 30 40
BOISE CITY  58 82 57 90 /  40 20 40 30
BORGER      61 83 61 88 /  40 20 30 40
BOYS RANCH  60 84 59 90 /  40 20 30 40
CANYON      61 82 60 89 /  40 20 30 40
CLARENDON   63 83 62 86 /  40 20 20 40
DALHART     59 83 58 90 /  40 20 40 30
GUYMON      60 83 59 88 /  40 20 30 40
HEREFORD    61 82 60 90 /  50 20 30 30
LIPSCOMB    61 81 61 85 /  30 20 20 40
SHAMROCK    64 82 63 85 /  30 20 20 40
WELLINGTON  64 83 63 85 /  30 20 20 40

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SLATTERY

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-132300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE NORTHEAST WINDS. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS FROM COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THESE ELEMENTS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BE ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO CANYON
TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

ANDRADE