Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, July 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
150 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2002

SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE.  THIS UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL GIVE US AN INCREASED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING OUT THE AREA.  ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM AND IN THE LONG TERM AGREE...BUT ITS IN
THE MID TERM THAT THEY ARE NOT AGREEING AS WELL.  IN THE SHORT TERM
WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OVER NEW MEXICO.
THAT HIGH IS FLANKED BY TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH ARE SLOWLY
CREEPING IN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE HIGH.  AS THE LOW CREEPS IN ON THE
EAST IT WILL BRING WITH IT INCREASED MOISTURE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY...BUT AS THE LOW CREEPS IN ON THE WEST IT WILL BRING IN
DRIER AIR AND MORE STABILITY.  UP TO ABOUT THURSDAY MORNING ALL THE
MODELS BASICALLY AGREE THAT THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL HAVE A BIGGER
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER.  BUT FROM THAT TIME ON INTO THE WEEKEND
THERE IS A BIT OF A DIVERGENCE IN THOUGHT.  THE CANADIAN HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE AVN TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST BRING IN
SOME WESTERLY DRY FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...WHILE THE ETA
STILL HOLDS TO THE MORE MOIST LOW TO THE EAST HOLDING ON TO CONTROL
OF OUR WEATHER.  NOW WITH THE DEFECTION OF THE CANADIAN MODEL TO THE
AVN SIDE OF VIEW IM LEANING MORE IN THE THAT DIRECTION FOR THE
SOLUTION OF OUR WEATHER.  NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT WE WILL HAVE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.  LIKE
I SAID IM LEANING TOWARD THE AVN SOLUTION SO THAT MEANS LESS OF A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  AS WE MOVE OUT OF THE WEEKEND ALL THE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO WHICH WILL GIVE US A MORE EAST FLOW
WHICH SHOULD BRING IN SOME SHORT WAVES AND MOISTURE FROM THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LITTLE DAY TO
DAY CHANGES.  ONE FINAL NOTE...DUE TO THE HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
MICRO BURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTION SO ILL
MENTION WINDS GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS EVENING.

EL PASO               BU  72/ 97/ 70/ 96/ 70  21312
LAS CRUCES            BU  67/ 96/ 65/ 95/ 65  21312
ALAMOGORDO            BU  67/ 96/ 65/ 95/ 65  21312
CLOUDCROFT            BU  48/ 75/ 46/ 74/ 46  13131
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES BU  67/ 97/ 65/ 96/ 65  21312
SILVER CITY           BU  61/ 90/ 59/ 89/ 59  13121
DEMING                BU  66/ 96/ 64/ 95/ 64  21311
LORDSBURG             BU  66/ 98/ 64/ 97/ 64  21311
SIERRA BLANCA         BU  69/ 96/ 67/ 95/ 67  21311

.ELP...NONE

15 BRICE

N

NMZ030-031-030130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
521 PM MDT TUE JUL 2 2002

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN GRANT AND NORTHWEST LUNA COUNTIES WAS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 10 MPH.  LITTLE RAINFALL WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS...HOWEVER...THESE STORMS POSSESS A HIGH POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DRY MICROBURSTS. ALREADY IN THE DEMING AREA WINDS ARE
GUSTING TO 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES ARE DOWN TO 5 MILES IN BLOWING
DUST. MOTORISTS ON OR PLANNING TO TRAVEL INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN LAS
CRUCES AND LORDSBERG DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS ARE CAUTIIONED TO BE
ALERT FOR GUSTING WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION CAUSING AREAS OF
RADPIDLY REDUCED VISIBILITES TO BELOW 1 MILE IN BLOWING DUST.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO NOT ENTER ANY AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND WAIT
UNTIL CONDITIOINS IMPROVE AS VISIBILITES MAY RAPIDLY DROP TO NEAR
ZERO CAUSING EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.