Damaging Winds in South Carolina, September 14, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE FLOOD THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM. EXPECT BANDS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN. PLAN
TO CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT. THIS WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE SLOWER AVN IS CORRECT. PLAN TO
HOLD OFF EXTENDING THE WATCH FOR NOW BECAUSE THE ETA SHOWS H85 WIND
SPEED DIVERGENCE SUNDAY. THE ETA ALSO KEEPS MOST OF THE H95 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...THE AVN MAY BE
TOO SLOW PER HPC/S DISCUSSION.

THE LATEST TPC TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE ETA KEEPS
H85 WIND BELOW 30 KTS. BELIEVE THE TORNADO THREAT IS SMALL BECAUSE
OF THE WEAK SHEAR AND DIURNAL TIMING.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
SUPPORT KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT
PLAN TO LOWER POPS TO CHANCE. EXPECT DIMINISHED COVERAGE BECAUSE THE
ETA AND AVN SHOW H5 SHORTWAVE RIDGING. GENERALLY PLAN TO USE THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED...PLAN TO KEEP TUESDAY DRY...AND FORECAST CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST MRF SHOWS SURFACE AND H5
RIDGING TUESDAY...AND AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE MODEL SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY. WILL USE THE MEX TEMPERATURES EXCEPT CUT A FEW DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BECAUSE OF A WEDGE PATTERN.

FCSTID = 5
CAE   73  86  73  89 /  80  80  40  40
AGS   73  86  72  89 /  80  80  30  40
SSC   73  85  73  87 /  80  80  40  40
OGB   74  86  73  89 /  80  80  40  40

.CAE...
GA...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT GAZ040-063>065-GAZ077.
SC...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT SCZ015>016-SCZ018-SCZ020>022-SCZ025>031-
SCZ035>038-SCZ041.

RJL

SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-GAZ040-063>065-
077-150400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
141 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002

THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING 18 COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CAROLINA:
AIKEN...               BAMBERG...             BARNWELL...
CALHOUN...             CLARENDON...           CHESTERFIELD...
EDGEFIELD...           FAIRFIELD...           KERSHAW...
LANCASTER...           LEE...                 LEXINGTON...
MCCORMICK...           NEWBERRY...            ORANGEBURG...
RICHLAND...            SALUDA...              SUMTER...

THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING 5 COUNTIES
IN GEORGIA:
BURKE...               COLUMBIA...            LINCOLN...
MCDUFFIE...            RICHMOND...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT...

DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS OUR
REGION. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH ALABAMA TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORM WILL PROVIDE AREAS OF RAIN...WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION...OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...SMALL STREAMS...
AND OTHER LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

ALSO...A SMALL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO EXISTS OVERNIGHT.

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS OFFICIALS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND MAKE PRELIMINARY PLANS TO DEAL WITH SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD IT OCCUR.

LISTEN FOR ANY LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS WHICH MAY BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.