Flood in Puerto Rico, September 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1105 AM AST WED SEP 18 2002

VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY AND MILDLY STABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE
EVOLVES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES ALONG MUCH OF THE
LOCAL COASTLINES...PRODUCING THE BEST DIURNAL FORCING ACROSS
INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS A MILD SOUTH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
STEERING FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK
AND ELONGATED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGHING FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST NEXT 24-36
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOCK CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH FROM BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. HAVE NOT ALTERED MORNING FORECASTS.

TROPICS ARE EVOLVING INTO AN INTERESTING PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH
ATLANTIC ITCZ HAVING LIFTED NORTHWARD TO AROUND 18 NORTH ALONG 50
WEST IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND ISIDORE
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL LIFT EPAC AND WESTERN CARIB MONSOONAL TROUGH
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIB AND GULFMEX. THIS WILL BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO
16-18 NORTH ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THIS IS NOT
CURRENTLY YIELDING ANY SUSPECT TROPICAL FEATURES OTHER THAN
ISIDORE...BUT MAY SET UP THE BASIN FOR FUTURE EVENTS. NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL RESPONDS BY BRINGING ANOTHER WELL DEFINED AND WET TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS COMING TUESDAY. STAY TUNED.

EQUIPMENT: NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

.SJU...
.PR...NONE.
.VI...NONE.

STRIPLING

WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS (IN ENGLISH OR SPANISH)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
...DOPPLER RADAR DATA...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU (ALL LOWER CASE).