Lightning Strike in Pennsylvania, June 17, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2002

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FA WITH MORE SEEN ON REGIONAL
RADARS UPSTREAM. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO END DURING THE EVE HOURS.
WILL MENTION SCT EVE SHRA AND TSRA...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE SE ZONES.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH WED FEATURES RISING HEIGHTS
AND TEMPS. ON TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE SFC.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT SO TO SPEAK IS ANOTHER S/W ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH DURING THE MORN AND EARLY AFT. ONLY
THE AVN MODEL SHOWS PRECIP FOR OUR FA. SINCE THE GUIDANCE PRECIP
CHCS ARE VERY LOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPED.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED THE MODELS INDICATE A N TO S GRADIENT IN THE
CLOUD COVER AND WILL FOLLOW. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT MOVES OFFSHORE ON WED. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR WED AT THIS TIME AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. THE AVN AND TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT THE ETA INDICATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES.

GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE AND FOLLOWED.

.BGM...NONE.

SMF