Hail and Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, June 17, 2002

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
347 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2002

THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS A
RESULT OF SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING OVERCOMING CAPPING INVERSION.
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...GIVEN
STRONG UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND HIGH CLOUD BASES. WILL KEEP POPS
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES WESTERLY UNDER INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGE.
REDUCE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO SLIGHT...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND
DIFFLUENT. PRESENCE OF COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IMPROVE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS.

LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PER AVIATION/GFS MODEL. THIS PATTERN
COULD MODIFY TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATER END OF FORECAST.

FCSTID = 8

AMARILLO    64 91 66 91 /  30 20 20 20
BEAVER      65 93 66 92 /  30 20 20 20
BOISE CITY  61 92 62 90 /  30 20 20 20
BORGER      64 93 66 91 /  30 20 20 20
BOYS RANCH  62 91 65 90 /  30 20 20 20
CANYON      64 91 66 91 /  20 20 20 20
CLARENDON   66 94 68 92 /  30 20 20 20
DALHART     61 91 63 90 /  30 20 20 20
GUYMON      63 93 65 92 /  30 20 20 20
HEREFORD    63 91 66 90 /  20 20 20 20
LIPSCOMB    66 94 68 92 /  30 20 20 20
SHAMROCK    66 94 69 93 /  30 20 20 20
WELLINGTON  67 94 69 93 /  30 20 20 20

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-172300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH AND WEST
OF A CANYON TO BEAVER LINE. TO THE EAST OF THE LINE...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS INTENSIFIED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING.

STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...COMBINED WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
CREATED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT
APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL SLIGHTLY...ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE SURFACE TROUGH.  AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MORE
SCATTERED DURING THE EARLY EVENING...THEY WILL MOVE INTO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. UPPER LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGEST SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND SKYWARN SPOTTER GROUPS THROUGHOUT
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
ALONG THE TEXAS-NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.

FOX