Wildfire in Oregon, September 1 to 2, 2002

SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
820 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002

WILL UPDATE MOST ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW RIBBONS OF CIRRUS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE
CONCERNS THIS SATURDAY EVENING. THE 00Z KMFR RAOB REVEALED DRY NNE
FLOW THRU AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE (SFC-400MB).
UP TO THE NORTH, THE 00Z SLE RAOB DID CAPTURED THE UPPER LEVEL
300-400MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRRUS, COMPLIMENTS OF A
COUPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES CAPTURED BY THE 00Z ETA 300-400MB
VORTICITY FIELDS.

OTHERWISE...THE WARM UP WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS 500MB
RIDGING BUILDS ONSHORE AND 850MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT 2C SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS ANOTHER DEGREE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH
TEMPS ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE AN ABRUPT COOL DOWN ARRIVES
MID-WEEK.

WOLF
----------------------------------------------------------------

230 PM DISCUSSION:

MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST NORTH
OF CAPE BLANCO AND SOME CU OVER THE RIDGES INLAND.

A FAIRLY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOW BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST.  500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE LEVELLING OFF.  AT LOW LEVELS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WENT
OFFSHORE LAST NIGHT BRINGING OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE SOUTH COAST.
EXPECT A REPEAT OF THAT PATTERN TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT MARINE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO AND THE COQUILLE VALLEY.  MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME
AS THE SUNDAY HIGHS.

THE BIG COOLDOWN IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE CURRENT AVN RUN SLOWS THE FRONT
DOWN A BIT...SO WILL PUSH BACK THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION AROUND 6 HOURS.  DONT EXPECT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS STILL EARLY IN THE SEASON AND THE MODEL
QPFS ARE PRETTY LOW...BUT THE TUESDAY HIGHS INLAND WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MONDAY HIGHS WITH WEDNESDAY ANOTHER 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

THE NEW RUN OF THE MRF DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN.
THE PREVIOUS RUN WAS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
YESTERDAY...MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE
UKMO AND THE ECMWF.  ON THE CURRENT RUN...THE MRF SOLUTION KEEPS THE
TROUGH AXIS POSITION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH STEADILY WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS SOLUTION IS IN LINE WITH THE UKMO AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER TODAY.
NOW THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE STRETCH WITH THE 500
MB HEIGHT BOTTOMING OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE NEW RUN ARGUES FOR
A SLOWER WARMING TREND THEREAFTER.  WILL EXTEND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL AS THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR
ALOFT.

STOCKTON

.MFR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY....FLORENCE OR TO CAPE BLANCO OR.
       GALE WARNING...CAPE BLANCO OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE CA.