High Wind in Oregon, December 30, 2002

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
830 PM PST SUN DEC 29 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PAC STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM HAS SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. GRADIENTS
ARE INCREASING ALONG THE COAST...AND HIGH WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE A
GOOD BET ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HEADLANDS AND BEACHES. PEAK WINDS LOOK
TO BE FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO 2 AM TONIGHT AT THE COAST. WINDS INLAND
SHOULD BE LESS THAN LAST FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL GET A GOOD SHOT OF SNOW
IN THE CASCADES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS INLAND
OVER THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THEN WE GET CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN THE DAY THAT
WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WARNING UP TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NEW 00Z ETA AND NGM AGREE WITH EARLIER 12Z/18Z GFS RUNS TAKING
THE SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH COAST LATE MONDAY
INLAND NEAR FLORENCE...TO JUST SOUTH OR EAST OF PORTLAND BY 10 PM.
THE DROPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 990S (MB) AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THIS
IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE WIND STORM THAT HIT EUGENE LAST
FEBRUARY. FOR NOW WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL STATEMENT...AND GO WITH 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS SOUTH OF PORTLAND MONDAY EVENING INLAND AND ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS. HIGH WIND IS A POSSIBILITY AND NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED. HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD MOVE
EAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE CASCADES. WILL
CONTINUE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE RIVERS DRAINING THE
CENTRAL COAST RANGE.

THE SWIRL IN THE CLOUDS OUT NEAR 45N 160W IS THE FEATURE THAT COMES
ONSHORE WITH MORE SHOWERS TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE A FRONTAL BAND THAT
DEVELOPS TO GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP DOWN TO 2500 FEET OR SO...AND ADVISORY TOTALS ARE LIKELY.
POSSIBLE LOW END GALE WINDS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL.

ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM RIDES NORTHEAST TOWARD B.C. ON NEW YEARS
DAY...WITH MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLE COASTAL WIND.

WILL GO UP TO A STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT. BAR PILOTS HAVE REPORTED
50 KT GUSTS. BELIEVE SHORT PERIOD ON BUILDING SEAS WILL AVOID THE
NEED FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY...BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING. WILL DROP
DOWN EARLY MONDAY TO A GALE BUT JUST IN THE SOUTH. WILL STILL NEED A
GALE FAR SOUTH IN THE EVENING FROM THE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS.

.LONG TERM...VERY UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER COUPLE OF
WAVES NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN B.C. FOR MORE RAIN AND COASTAL WIND.
WILL NEED TO WATCH COASTAL STREAMS FOR THIS PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF SHOW
SNOW LEVELS FALLING BELOW CASCADE PASSES THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALTHOUGH
CANADIAN GLOBAL SLOWER WITH COOLER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INLAND. FLAT
RIDGING APPARENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IS DIRTIED BY A WARM FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. TOLLESON

AST ++9758  PDX 9+9858  SLE 9++858  EUG 9++858

.PQR...STORM WARNING CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE TONIGHT.
      .HIGH WIND WARNING SOUTH WA COAST AND NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
         COAST TONIGHT.
      .WINTER STORM WARNING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR
         THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
         OREGON CASCADES.
      .FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR RIVERS DRAINING THE CENTRAL COAST
         RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ORZ002-004-007-008-010>013-301900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
940 PM PST SUN DEC 29 2002

...WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND COAST
RANGE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS MONDAY EVENING...

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHERN OREGON
COAST LATE MONDAY...MOVE ONSHORE NEAR FLORENCE OREGON EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...THEN PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO EAST OF
THE DALLES BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE
STORM THAT PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS IN THE EUGENE AREA IN FEBRUARY OF
2002. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES AS FORECAST...SOUTH OF THE LOW
CENTER GUSTY SOUTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.

MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
ON THIS STORM SYSTEM.

TOLLESON