Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Texas, December 30, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
512 AM CST MON DEC 30 2002

...AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SOME DRIER AIR AT 850 MB SEEMED TO BE WORKING IN ON SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT ABOUT 09Z...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS TRYING TO DROP A BIT EARLIER.
AT THIS TIME...LOW CLOUDS ARE WORKING BACK IN AND DEWPOINTS ARE
EDGING UP AGAIN (OF COURSE I WAS FOOLED BY THE SUCKER HOLE THAT
FORMED). THIS MAY BE TO DUE TO SLIGHT WIND BACKING FROM THE 3 HR
PRESSURE FALLS NOTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST (IN ADVANCE OF UPPER
LOW). IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD STAY MVFR THRU AFTN WITH ALL THE
MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH LIFT.
AS FAR AS RAIN...I STILL SEE NO LOW LEVEL RETURNS TO THE WEST
YET...BUT THIS SHOULD BE CHANGING IN THE NEXT 6 HRS OR SO AS THE
UPPER LOW HITS THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP CBS NOTED FROM MIDDAY THRU THE AFTN UNTIL WE CAN
PINPOINT ACTIVITY. MVFR EXPECTED THRU 06Z. 30

...PUBLIC DISCUSSION...350 AM CST MON DEC 30 2002
THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ELEVATED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...BUT STORMS IN THE SOUTH MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED
THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MAY OCCUR IN THE EAST. WRAP AROUND RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO LOUISIANA TUESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY IN THE WEST...AND BY MIDDAY IN THE EAST. A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
A WEAK FRONT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH DRY.  DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. #58

FCSTID = 58
DFW   70  40  56  34 /  60  60  20   0
ACT   72  43  57  34 /  70  60  20   0
PRX   70  44  55  31 /  80  90  40   0
DTO   69  40  56  32 /  60  60  20   0
TKI   69  42  56  33 /  60  60  20   0
DAL   70  42  56  34 /  60  60  20   0
TRL   71  44  56  34 /  70  60  20   0
CRS   71  44  56  34 /  80  60  20   0
TPL   72  43  58  35 /  70  60  20   0

.FWD...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF A
       JACKSBORO....TO GATESVILLE LINE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-302230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR DAY ONE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
905 AM CST MON DEC 30 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BROUGHT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...POWERFUL JET
STREAM WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DESTABILIZE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS. AS MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. A FEW SPOTS...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
35 AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...MAY SEE DAMAGING WINDS...AS THE MOST
UNSTABLE SURFACE AIR WILL RESIDE OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS...WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE DAY
TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH.  CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.  IF WINDS
INCREASE A BIT MORE...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...TO
FORT WORTH...TO SHERMAN LINE THIS MORNING. ACTIVATION MAY BE
NECESSARY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACTIVATION
MAY BE NECESSARY INTO THE EVENING HOURS SOUTHEAST OF AN ATHENS TO
CAMERON LINE.

 ROBBINS