Flash Flood in Oklahoma, May 28, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
310 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  MODELS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SYSTEM WILL MEANDER EASTWARD TODAY
ACROSS THE STATE...THEN DRIFT GENERALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  BEST CHANCE POPS WILL BE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

CURRENTLY HAVE A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA...WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA MORE DIRECTLY UNDER
THE UPPER LOW.  EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DAY AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  EXACT LOCATION STILL TOUGH TO PINPOINT AT
THIS TIME...SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLANNED FOR NOW.  WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.  SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN RATHER
WEAK...SO POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER STILL LOOKS PRETTY
LIMITED.

CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO KEEP A
FAIRLY SHORT RANGE ON TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GUIDANCE TEMPS DO
NOT LOOK ALL THAT BAD...SO WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER MAXES AND
WARMER MINS.

WILL BEGIN TO TREND POPS DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW INTO
THURSDAY TILL SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES AWAY.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY/WARMER INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGE.

FCSTID = 4

TUL  76  64  79  64 /  70  60  40  30
FSM  77  63  79  63 /  70  70  60  30
MLC  77  64  79  64 /  70  70  40  30
BVO  76  63  78  63 /  70  60  40  30
FYV  75  59  76  59 /  70  70  60  30
BYV  75  60  76  61 /  70  70  60  30
MIO  77  62  79  62 /  70  60  40  30
MKO  77  64  79  64 /  70  60  40  30
F10  77  64  79  64 /  70  60  40  30
HHW  78  64  80  64 /  70  70  60  30

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO SOME AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...

AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY
IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AS THE SYSTEM SPREADS
STORMS OUT OF WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 INCH BUT SOME PLACES MAY SEE ANOTHER
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER.
SURFACE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH OUTFLOW FROM AREAS OF
CONVECTION THE DOMINANT FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
LIFTED INDICES TO -1 ALONG WITH NEAR SURFACE BASED CAPES
OF AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5
INCHES AND WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BE PRESENT OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWEST OVER LE FLORE AND SOUTHERN
SEBASTIAN COUNTIES WHERE 1 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD
BEGIN TO CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS. DEPENDING ON HOW MORNING
CONVECTION DEVELOPS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA