Hail and Lightning Strike in Oklahoma, May 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
235 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
PERHAPS STALL. ALTHOUGH THE LOCAL AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND MODEST LIFT OCCURRING...THE
LACK OF WIDESPREAD ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND IDENTIFIABLE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES MAKES THE TASK OF CONFIDENTLY DETERMINING AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS TONIGHT/TUESDAY VERY
DIFFICULT. OTHER THAN ISOLATED LOCATIONS WITHIN THE AREA THAT HAVE
RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEK...MOST OF THE AREA HAS
EXPERIENCED WELL BELOW NORMAL RAIN FOR THE LAST MONTH. BELIEVE
MOST AREAS CAN ABSORB ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE THE RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING BECOMES SIGNIFICANT. THIS MAY VERY WELL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT BUT THE HIGH AMOUNTS MAY BE SO ISOLATED THAT ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OR AT LEAST A LARGE PART OF IT
SEEMS LESS APPROPRIATE THAN SIMPLY HIGHLIGHTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN THE ZONES AND DEFERRING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH DECISION UNTIL THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHEN THE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

BELIEVE 80 POPS OR HIGHER ARE NEEDED BOTH TONIGHT/TUESDAY BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A VARIETY OF LONG WAVE PATTERNS MAY
INFLUENCE THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME AGREEMENT THAT AN EAST COAST/WEST COAST TROUGH
WILL FORM WITH A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS SUPPORTS A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LATE SUNDAY OVER WEST
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS
ADVECTING EAST FROM A TEXAS PANHANDLE DRYLINE. NOT CONFIDENT THE
PATTERN WILL PERSIST HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH. THIS TROUGH MOVEMENT AND
CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA NEXT MONDAY.

OKC   65  71  65  73 /  80  80  70  40
HBR   64  72  62  83 /  80  80  70  30
SPS   65  71  63  79 /  80  80  70  40
GAG   63  74  61  86 /  80  80  40  20
PNC   65  71  65  73 /  80  80  70  40
DUA   66  71  66  71 /  80  80  70  60

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
JAMES