Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, May 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
815 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

UPDATED ZONES SENT TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA.
GENERALLY WENT CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3RD OF OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...DECREASING FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST. LINE OF
STORMS FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS DOWN INTO WEST TEXAS SHOULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON AREA RAOBS. 00Z OUN AND FWD
SOUNDINGS WOULD BE QUITE SCARY IF WIND SHEAR WERE BETTER. AT ANY
RATE...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT...SO EXPECT ACTIVITY
TO HOLD ITS OWN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH SUCH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...TIME OF YEAR...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS
EXPECTED...WILL BE MONITORING FOR NON-CONVECTIVE WIND EVENT /HEAT
BURSTS/.

OTHERWISE...WILL FRESHEN UP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY TO
REFLECT CURRENT THINKING/TRENDS.

FCSTID = 11

-----------------

THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER WET ACROSS PARTS OF
OK. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT,
ONLY MODEST LIFTING WILL BE NECESSARY TO GENERATE RAIN. THE FIRST
EPISODE COMES TONIGHT AS STORMS THAT FORM ON THE NM-TX DRYLINE ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTERSECT THE LOW-LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN OK. AN MCS MAY EVOLVE, MOST LIKELY OVER NW
OK AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT. THEN
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THE UPPER LOW, INDICATED IN W/V OVER
SOUTHERN CA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WILL BRING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST THAT SHOULD AGAIN SPREAD
EAST DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THIS UPPER
LOW TO CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER OK MONDAY NIGHT AND MEANDER
ACROSS THE STATE INTO THURSDAY. THUS, POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THURSDAY BEING THE TRANSITION
DAY. ALTHOUGH PERIODS BEYOND THURSDAY ARE DRY, THE EXIT OF SYSTEMS
LIKE THIS OFTEN IS NOT WELL FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODELS.

FCSTID =09
OKC   66  80  67  76 /  40  50  40  40
HBR   65  83  66  77 /  50  40  50  40
SPS   67  84  67  80 /  40  40  40  40
GAG   63  82  63  76 /  70  40  70  40
PNC   65  80  66  76 /  60  70  50  40
DUA   66  82  67  77 /  20  40  40  40

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.