Tornado and Flash Flood in Oklahoma, May 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

BRIEF TIME OUT IN THE ACTION AS FIRST WAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OK...SAY FROM TUL TO SWO TO FAIRVIEW WITH
SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SE
KANSAS.  RELATIVELY UNCAPPED SOUNDING THIS MORNING SO AS NEXT WAVE
OVER WESTERN CO APPROACHES AREA SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTION.  SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF CWA PER VISIBLE
SATELLITE SEEMS TO BE BETTER CAPPED...AND THIS AREA WILL BE MAIN
AREA TO WATCH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY NEED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AS CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT THERE.  WILL SEND UPDATED GRIDS AND
ZONES SHORTLY.

SIX

-------------------------
251 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

CURRENT STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL OK BY SUNRISE WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THEIR WAKE. THE BOUNDARIES INITIATED BY THIS
RAIN WILL ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST OK AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON THE FRONT MAY MOVE NORTH TO THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF OK. REGARDLESS, THE APPROACHING UPPER
WAVE AND THE RESIDENT ATMOSPHERE ARE SET FOR STORMS AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER LIKELY SUPERCELLS...A SQUALL LINE WILL
PROBABLY FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL OK
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST OK SATURDAY MORNING. POPS WERE
RAISED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THIS.

BRIEFLY DISCUSSED A FFA WITH TULSA BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ONE NOW. HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD AND THE GROUND HAS BEEN ABLE TO
ABSORB IT TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW SOON STORMS FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE MAY GIVE SOME CONCERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL OK.

DRIER AIR ON NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS OK SATURDAY WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE PLEASANT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK.

FCSTID =
OKC   78  60  73  57 /  40  90  40  20
HBR   79  58  75  56 /  40  90  30  20
SPS   83  64  78  61 /  20  40  40  30
GAG   76  47  75  54 /  40 100  20  10
PNC   74  53  73  54 /  60 100  20  10
DUA   81  65  78  61 /  20  40  90  30

.OUN...
OK...NONE
TX...NONE

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1039 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1010 PM    6 NE MOOREWOOD            OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/23/02   CUSTER                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0930 PM    1 N MOOREWOOD             OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/23/02   CUSTER                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC

EM

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-242200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KINGFISHER TO
LEEDEY AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE TO ADA TO ARDMORE.  THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 6 AM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPOTTER
GROUPS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER
COLORADO APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES.   BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AND MOVE EAST...WITH THE
THREAT BECOMING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN.

THREAT TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SAT MAY 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...95 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... LOCAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/OUN.