Hail and Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, June 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
122 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2002

PATTERN IS EVOLVING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER LOW
SLOWLY BECOMES A SWD EXTENSION OF S/W TROF OVER THE GRT LAKES. WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THRU THE CENT PLAINS WITH
RESIDUAL MCV NOW HELPING TO INITIATE NEW DEEP CONVECTION OVER SW
KANSAS. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS OTHER THAN TO EXPAND LOW POPS A BIT FOR
TONITE.  MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE E AND SE SECTIONS OF THE FA
WILL PROB BE THIS EVENING..BUT SOME ACTIVITY CUD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE NITE OUT WEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD REDEVELOPMENT
OF MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
MAKE A CASE FOR EXPANDING LOW POPS INTO PARTS OF MON/TUE/WED. AT
THIS TIME..WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PCT..BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED SOME IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.
 MILLER

PRELIM NUMBERS..
OKC  69 90 69 91 /  20 30 20 30
HBR  69 93 68 94 /  20 20 20 30
SPS  70 93 68 94 /  20 20 20 30
GAG  66 91 66 92 /  20 30 20 30
PNC  68 90 68 91 /  10 30 20 30
DUA  70 88 68 89 /  30 30 20 30

.OKC...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-262200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA OR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
STORM COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY NORTH OF AN ALVA TO ARNETT
OKLAHOMA LINE.

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION LEFT OVER FROM AN OVERNIGHT
COMPLEX OF STORMS. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL PRECLUDE
ORGANIZED OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THESE COULD AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY COOL AIR AT MID LEVELS NEAR THIS SYSTEM WILL
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED...AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THU JUN 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMITH

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-262200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. OTHER NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD TO KINGFISHER TO
LAWTON TO SEYMOUR.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION LEFT OVER FROM AN
OVERNIGHT COMPLEX OF STORMS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. RELATIVELY COOL AIR AT MID LEVELS NEAR THIS SYSTEM WILL
COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED...AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS
ALOFT...THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE
EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THU JUN 27.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMITH