Tornado and Hail in Iowa, June 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
213 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2002

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS AGAIN THIS PACKAGE ARE TIMING OF FRONT
THROUGH CWA TODAY AND ASSOCIATED TSRA CHANCES/COVERAGE.

BOTH AVN/META ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH FRONT THROUGH
18Z...BRINGING IT INTO CENTRAL IOWA.  META THEN SLOWER WITH MOVEMENT
THROUGH SOUTHERN IA THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH IT DOES PUSH THE
AFTERNOON QPF MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE AVN.  META SEEMED TO HAVE
INITIALIZED A BIT BETTER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE IN MN AND
THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION EXTENDING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN INTO WISCONSIN. WILL MONITOR FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING
TOWARDS ISSUANCE TIME. THE FOCUS SHIFTS FROM THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH. WITH WEAK FRONT AND 925/850 WINDS
OF 20 KTS AT BEST...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE NEAR THE
FRONT AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY...AND NOT VERY EXTENSIVE IN AREAL
COVERAGE.  WILL GO WITH 30/40 POPS FOR MUCH OF CWA OTHER THAN
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AS WELL AS 30 POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR TONIGHT.
HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FAR
SOUTH...WITH DAYTIME HEATING BOOSTING CAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS FOR TEMPS...ILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV TODAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTH...THEN A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORECAST STILL LOOKS DRY AND WARM THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTION.

.DSM...NONE

KINNEY