Flash Flood and Hail in Oklahoma, June 12 to 13, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
320 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

MCS THAT TRACKED ACROSS NE OK EARLIER TODAY HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED
THE NW AR ZONES.  FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT/MCS
THAT WILL ENTER NE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO  DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN WRN
OK...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ERN OK THIS
EVENING.  AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS SW KS AND
TRACK SE TOWARDS NRN OK. CURRENT TRACK OF SYSTEM/QPF SUGGESTS
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. WHILE A
30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT TO MAINTAIN STORM
INTENSITY...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP MOVE STORMS ALONG...MUCH LIKE
THIS MORNINGS SYSTEM. WILL NOT ISSUE FFA AT THIS TIME...BUT EVENING
SHIFT WILL WANT TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. STORMS AS THEY MOVE E-SE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
LOSES IDENTITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY AS NEW CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES/COLD FRONT.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS LOOK TO BE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER MCS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA VIA NW FLOW ALOFT. WILL
KEEP POPS GOING INTO MONDAY...AND LEAVE TUES-WED DRY FOR NOW.

TUL  70  81  66  82 /  60  80  10  10
FSM  73  83  65  84 /  40  80  20  10
MLC  73  83  65  84 /  40  80  10  10
BVO  68  80  62  81 /  70  80  10  10
FYV  68  78  61  80 /  50  80  10  10
BYV  69  78  61  78 /  50  80  10  10
MIO  69  78  62  80 /  60  80  10  10
MKO  71  81  66  83 /  50  80  10  10
F10  71  82  66  83 /  50  80  10  10
HHW  74  85  67  85 /  40  80  20  10

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
105 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE
   NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST...WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  A FEW OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE.  HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL COME TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS
WHICH WILL ORGANIZE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.  THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MILES AN HOUR.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
EUFAULA TO SALLISAW TO HUNTSVILLE LINE LATE TONIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WAS MOVING FROM
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
ACTICVITY WAS GENERATING A BOUNDARY THAT MAY FOCUS ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA MAY RESULT IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS REACHING SEVERE LIMITS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.  HOWEVER... THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE TONIGHT.  WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE SQUALL LINE TO FORM OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSIY INTO THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION TO THE EXPECTED
LOW LEVEL JET.

RISK TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC THURSDAY

AREA 1...ALONG AND NORTH OF A EUFAULA TO SALLISAW TO HUNTSVILLE LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...80
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20

AREA 2...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A EUFAULA TO SALLISAW TO HUNTSVILLE LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...50
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...5

RISK AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK.  PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA