Hail and Heavy Rain in Nebraska, June 12, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

...FORECAST CONCERN THIS CYCLE IS CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...

SURFACE BOUNDARY BISECTING KANSAS NE TO SW AS OF 07Z. SECONDARY
FRONT SET TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED NORTH OF
THE BORDER UPPER LOW TAKING ITS TIME MOVING EAST ALTHOUGH SOME
SIGN OF THAT IN LAST FEW HOURS. SUBTROPICAL PLUME ACROSS TX AND OK
AND WONT BE A FACTOR FOR US. 70KT JET STREAK COULD BE SEEN
STARTING OUT IN SOUTHERN NEVADA ABOUT 19Z TUES AND MAKING IT TO
DENVER BY 06 OR 07Z. THIS HELPED TO SET OFF CONVECTION IN NW KS
OVERNIGHT. BRUNT OF THAT ACTIVITY SOUTH OF OUR CWA. WILL MAKE LAST
MINUTE DECISION ABOUT WHETHER TO INCLUDE ANY MORNING POPS. TOUGH TO
TELL IF CENTRAL KS MCS IS GETTING ANY LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS GDA...
HVL...AND HBR PROFILERS ALL BELLY UP ATTM. PROFILERS DO HAVE LL JET
SUPPORT FOR MISSOURI MCS.

LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH SFC BOUNDARY NOTED ABOVE...800-700 MB WAVE
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 00-03Z AS NOTED ON META AND AVN. TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S ACROSS CWA ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE
MOISTURE AT SFC UP TO 850 MB...WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS CELSIUS.  SOME COOLING WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL TROF. ALL
THIS RESULTS IN CAPES FROM 1500-2500 BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS WILL
ADD A MENTION OF TSTMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AS LAST THURSDAY I
UNDERESTIMATED THE EFFECT OF THE 700 MB SHORTWAVE AND WE ENDED UP
WITH SEVERE TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH OF AREA ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN KS.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM WE SHOULD BE IN FOR A FEW DAYS OF DRIER/COOLER
CONDITIONS AS WE STAY ON BACK SIDE OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WHICH
IS PROGGED TO BE IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.GID...NONE.

EWALD

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-122300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1125 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

A COLD FRONT FROM SIOUX CITY THROUGH THE TRI CITIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AT A
FAIRLY SLOW RATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEET
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT A GOOD SHARE OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SUPERIOR TO PHILLIPSBURG...KANSAS AFTER 5
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.

SCHURR

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-122300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1212 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

A COLD FRONT FROM IOWA THROUGH THE TRI CITIES OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
AT A FAIRLY SLOW RATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEET
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT A GOOD SHARE OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME NEBRASKA STORMS MAY DROP LARGE
HAIL...BUT THE GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM SUPERIOR TO PHILLIPSBURG...KANSAS AFTER 2 THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.

SCHURR