Damaging Winds in Oklahoma, July 22, 2002

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
315 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

ALL THE MAJOR MODELS AGREE THE COLD FRONT IS COMING.  THE QUESTION
IS TIMING...PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNT OF ACTUAL COOLING WILL OCCUR.

BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT
AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  A FEW STORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF STILLWATER
AND BELIEVE MORE STORMS WILL POP UP ALONG THE FRONT AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.  THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO WILL
ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHERE THE FRONT WILL
PASS AND A LITTLE BEHIND IT.  WILL TAPER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.  WITH THE FRONT IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD...THE SOUTH WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY.

8H TEMPS REALLY DO NOT COOL DOWN THAT MUCH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER KANSAS CITY AND WICHITA ARE IN THE MID 80S.
THINK WILL SEE SOME SUN TOMORROW SO TEMPS SHOULD GET TO AROUND 90.
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE BIT COOLER AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND DEW
POINTS DROP SLIGHTLY.  TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP AGAIN FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK.  DO NOT SEE ANY MORE CHANCES OF RAIN OR ANY COOL
DOWNS IN STORE AFTER THIS SHOT OF WEATHER.

TUL  71  89  70  92 /  30  20  10  10
FSM  73  92  68  91 /  30  30  20  20
MLC  73  92  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
BVO  67  88  66  91 /  30  20  10  10
FYV  71  87  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
BYV  70  85  64  86 /  30  20  10  10
MIO  70  87  66  90 /  30  20  10  10
MKO  72  90  69  92 /  30  20  10  10
F10  72  90  70  91 /  30  20  10  10
HHW  74  94  69  92 /  20  30  20  20

FORECAST ID= 17
.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2002

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...

A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY...AND OTHER POSSIBLE
BOUNDARIES IN THE REGION...ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCAL FOCUSING
MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
BRIEFLY.

THE TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM 4 PM TO
MIDNIGHT.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS AREA BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDAIRES WAS BECOMING QUITE UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND AT MAXIMUM HEATING...CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 3500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES SHOULD REACH AROUND -8 DEGREES.
WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE CURRENT AIR MASS ARE VERY WEAK AND
UNORGANIZED.  THEREFORE...ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND
POORLY ORGANIZED.  STORMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.

RISK TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC TUESDAY

AREA 1...ALONG AND NORTH OF A BENTONVILLE TO OKEMAH LINE.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...70
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...5

RISK AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER HAIL.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA