Hail in Oklahoma, January 23, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
943 AM CST WED JAN 23 2002

AN UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO INCLUDE HIGHER AND
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHWEST CORNER... AND ALL
SHORT-TERM MODELS INDICATING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE... LIFT... AND
INSTABILITY... HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.  HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS TO 60
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST.

OTHERWISE... THE ONLY INTENTIONAL CHANGES WERE TO UPDATE THE
POSITION OF THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
NOW ABOUT HALFWAY ACROSS OUR AREA... AND TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
FOG.

FURTHER UPDATES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO DEAL WITH CONTINUING
TEMPORAL WORDING... AND PERHAPS SOME FINE-TUNING OF THE
PRECIPITATION DESCRIPTIONS.

FCSTID = 23 = CMS

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-232000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1211 PM CST WED JAN 23 2002

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 44.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WARM... MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO UNUSUALLY STRONG INSTABILITY FOR JANUARY.  LOW FREEZING LEVELS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF HAIL. HOWEVER... ONLY A VERY FEW OF
THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAIL LARGER THAN
THREE FOURTHS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER.

THERE IS A SOMEWHAT HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... MAINLY EAST OF ATOKA
AND DURANT.

CMS