Drought in Ohio, September 1 to 25, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002

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900 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002

MOISTURE INCREASING IN EASTERLY FLOW AS NEW ENGLAND HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND WILL ALLOW SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO COME IN. SO CLOUDS
LOOK TO HANG TOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL UPDATE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT MIN TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD. WILL DROP MIN
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE WEST UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.

OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

.END/JMV
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245 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

VIS SAT IMAGERY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY ATTM...WITH OVC
SKIES OVER AND EAST OF MTNS WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD WEST OF MTNS.
RADAR NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPING AS THEY WERE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  SCT SHRA IN SOUTHERN KY AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE
ASSOCIATED WITH NEARLY STATIONARY VORT.  BULK OF PRECIP CONTINUES
ALONG PIEDMONT REGION OF NC ON SOUTHEAST.

PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED TO TRY TO PUSH DEEP MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP OVER CWA BUT IT HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE.  NGM
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS AND AM DISCOUNTING THIS SOLUTION.  AVN/ETA
ARE BETTER AND KEEP MOST OF PRECIP ALONG AND EAST OF MTNS.  LIKE AVN
PRECIP PATTERN KEEPING PRECIP OVER CENTRAL VA AND EAST.  WITH LITTLE
FLOW IN MID LEVELS AND PRECIP NEARLY STATIONARY IN CAROLINAS DO NOT
EXPECT PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO CWA TONIGHT.  WILL CARRY 30 POP ALONG
MTNS SUNDAY AND DRY WEST AS ANY PRECIP THAT REACHES MTNS WILL FALL
OUT AND WEST SIDE WILL DOWNSLOPE AND WARM KEEPING PRECIP THREAT
MINIMAL.

NO OTHER PRECIP IN FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE FINALLY
MOVES UP MID ATLANTIC.  AS FOR CLOUD COVER...THINK IT WILL BE
SIMILAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS TO TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND DIURNAL CU WEST OF MTNS WITH LITTLE CLOUD
AT NIGHT.  THIS WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS FOR LOWS.  HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...80S WEST OF MTNS AND 70 TO 80 IN MTNS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT ON)

ANY AFFECTS FROM CAROLINAS WAVE OVERDONE ON CURRENT MODELS AS FAR AS
OUR CWA IS CONCERNED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF SHOWERS TUE NGT/WED
TIME FRAME OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH RESULTS
IN A DRY FORECAST WED NIGHT ON.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

END  HC/DB

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1022 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002

MORNING SAT IMAGES SHOWING LITTLE IN WAY OF CLOUD COVER WITH
EXCEPTION OF MTN COUNTIES.  AREA RADARS LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH BULK OF PRECIP IN PIEDMONT REGION OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
OFF CAROLINA COASTS.  12Z RAOBS SHOWED VERY LITTLE FLOW IN MID
LEVELS (LESS THAN 10 KTS AT 850MB-500MB) AT GSO AND RNK.

OF THE 06Z SUITES...META LOOKS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE OF WEATHER
SITUATION.  AVN BROUGHT DEEP MOISTURE TO OHIO RIVER BY 18Z AND THAT
LOOKS TO BE A TOUGH FEAT WITH LITTLE FLOW.  06Z MAV GUIDANCE ALSO
HAD MAX TEMP AT CRW OF 76...WHICH IS CURRENT TEMP.

MOISTURE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ZONES
TODAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD WESTWARD.  LITTLE IN WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP SO OUTSIDE OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON MTNS THINK
PRECIP ELSEWHERE WILL NOT MATERIALIZE.  WILL LOWER POPS ACROSS BOARD
AND KEEP 30 POP ALONG MTNS AND INTO SOUTHERN WVA.  WV LOOP SHOWS A
VORT SPINNING IN NORTHEAST TN WHICH HAD CONVECTION WITH IT FRIDAY.

WILL ALSO BUMP UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS WELL WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST REFLECTED.  ALTHOUGH CU FIELD WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER...THINK IT WILL BE THIN ENOUGH WEST OF OHIO RIVER TO
GO MOSTLY SUNNY...PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.

HC

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325 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)

MODELS CONTINUE PUSHING THE MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE UPPER HIGH PUSHES WEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  BUT
MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL ACTUALLY BE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  ALL OF THE LATEST MODELS SHOW PRECIP BEING
LIMITED TO ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY AND THAN ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.

HAVE GONE BELOW FWC MOS POPS AS NGM HAS NOT HAD A VERY GOOD TRACK
RECORD ON POP VERIFICATION.  HAVE ALSO GONE ABOVE FWC MOS GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY AS AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE WILL GENERALLY BE
SIMILAR TO FROM FRIDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY ON)

MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO TRUDGE EASTWARD SUNDAY AND WE BEGIN TO
TREND TOWARDS WEAK ZONAL FLOW.  STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE ON SUNDAY TO
POP A FEW SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CUT CHANCES A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST IN THE NEW GRIDS...GENERALLY EAST OF HTS/PKB.
NUDGED TEMPS A BIT LOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS AROUND.

MONDAY/TUESDAY ARE INTERESTING AS AVN/ETA DIFFER ON LITTLE WAVE
COMING ASHORE MONDAY MORNING IN THE CAROLINAS.  ETA SLOWS IT DOWN
AND STRENGTHENS IT WITH A LOT OF QPF JUST OFF TO OUR EAST...WHILE
AVN HAS DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.
UKMET/ECMWF ARE ALSO WEAKER WITH THE WAVE.  EVEN THE ETA...COMPARED
TO ITS 30/12Z RUN...IS TRENDING TOWARD THE FURTHER EAST/WEAKER
SCENARIO.  SO WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY LOW CHANCE POPS ONLY FOR THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON MONDAY... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST.   AVN ALSO SLOWING DOWN FRONTAL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FRONT MAY IN FACT NOT REACH US AT ALL.  DROPPED ALL POPS
TO 20 FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SLIGHT CHANCE.  NO CHANGES BEYOND
TUESDAY AT THIS POINT.

CL/JSH

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