Hail in Ohio, August 12, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
220 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2002

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WHETHER WRN FCST AREA WILL SEE
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ON TUES PM. MODELLERS SUGGEST THAT THE AVN IS
OVERDONE WITH THE VORT. AFTER TALKING WITH CLE AND SDF, WILL
CONTINUE OUR CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST WITH TOWARDS MORNING OR LATE
WORDING. SFC FRONT WEAKENS AS THE LOW LIFTS NE THROUGH THE GTLKS ON
WED AND NEVER QUITE PUSHES THROUGH OUR FCST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME KIND OF CHANCE POPS EARLY ON WED PM. ONLY IN THE EAST THURS AM.

ON TEMPS, WILL LEAN TOWARDS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED SIGNIFIFCANTLY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE PRECIP, AND THIS LOOKS
REASONABLE. ETA TEMPS ARE CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM, BUT A MIX BETWEEN
THE MAV AND FWC WILL PROBABLY BE GOOD.

AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH BY THURS MORNING, ZONAL H5 PATTERN SETS
UP WHICH KEEPS THE SPAGHETTI CHARTS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH EACH
OTHER. MRF SEEMS TOO BUSY WITH SFC FEATURES BY DAYS 6 AND 7 IN A
ZONAL H5 PATTERN ALTHOUGH IS CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN SOLUTION AT THE
END OF DAY 5.

ANOTHER S/W SPAWNING A STRONG SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS A GOOD BIT
FURTHER NW OF FCST AREA ON SAT, BUT STILL TRAIL A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT THROUGH NRN FCST AREA. PROBLEM HERE IS LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
AND ZONAL FLOW BRINGS UP TIMING ISSUES. SINCE H5 PATTERN IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONG SFC FRONT ON THE WEEKEND, SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR PM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED SFC
FIELDS, WILL HAVE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR SUN AND MON. TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN SWLY FLOW FOR LAST FEW DAYS.

.ILN...NONE.

FRANKS