Hail in North Dakota, July 9, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL FOLLOW AVN FOR THIS PACKAGE AS
IT SEEMED TO HAVE A BIT BETTER HANDLE YESTERDAY ON WHAT TURNED TO BE
A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. PROBLEMS TODAY WILL BE EXTEND OF SEVERE CONVECTION
EASTERN PORTION CWA...TEMPERATURES TOMORROW UNDER MID-LEVEL LOW AND
TIMING OF THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY.

CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND IN RACE WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY MILD UNDER CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS FALLING
RAPIDLY FROM WEST SO THIS LINE MAY BE FOCUS OF SEVERE CONVECTION IS
EVENING AS LINE MOVES EAST. PWS APPROACH 2.00 INCHES IN BAND OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHICH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH
FLOOD GUIDANCE MUCH LOWER TODAY SOME LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE UNDER
HEAVIEST PRECIP BUT WILL NOT ISSUE HYDRO HEADLINES.

TOMORROWS HIGHS WILL WELL BELOW THE LEVELS OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
WILL NOT GO AS LOW AS THE COLDER MAV BUT CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE GROUND
OF THE MET. WILL END PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL
LEAVING SOME LINGERAING SHOWER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES INTO
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

IN EXTENDED WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER IN MON AND TUES AS SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF COLD FRONT KNOCKING DOWN RIDGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.BIS...NONE.
HW