Winter Storm in North Dakota, December 18 to 19, 2002

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
245 AM CST WED DEC 18 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND CURRENT AND FUTURE HEADLINES.

MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH BRUNT OF FORECAST PERIOD. WILL USE MIX FOR GRIDS.

STILL A RATHER COMPLICATED SFC PATTERN HOWEVER SFC LOW ALONG NE/SD
BORDER TO LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING. MSAS
PRESSURE FALLS BACK THIS UP SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT WITH TRACK. UPPER
LOW TO OUR SOUTH TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH FA OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAIN BAND OF -RA/FZRA/SN ORIENTED FROM NW-SE FA AND LIFTING NORTH.
AS COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL OVERNIGHT EXPECT CONTINUED TRANSITION TO
-SN MAINLY FROM RED RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE CASE
AS MORE METARS INDICATING -SN VS LIQUID.  SFC TEMPERATURES OVER MOST
OF FA AT OR ABOVE 32F HOWEVER ROAD SURFACES ARE RELATIVELY ICY.
FEEL ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR NW FA IN
COOLER AIR AND CLOSER TO DEFORMATION ZONE. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS ENTIRE FA FOR THE MORNING TO COVER
MIXED PCPN AND NW FA SNOWFALL. BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTH REGION TO BE INFLUENCED BY DRY SLOT AS HEAVIER DEFORMATION ZONE
SNOW STAYS TO OUR WEST. MAIN JET TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST.
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER MISSISSSIPI VALLEY LIMITING DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AM SEEING A BREAK IN PCPN OVER FAR SOUTHERN FA
FROM REGION RADARS ALONG WITH WARMER TOPS FROM IR LOOP. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD. AS A RESULT DO NOT FEEL ANY
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL OCCUR. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES WITH
COOLING COLUMN AND CLOUDS FEEL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY
FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LOW WRAP-AROUND
SNOWFALL TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO WARRANT KEEPING WATCHES GOING. IN ADDITION
LACK OF ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION AND WIND SHOULD LIMIT ANY BLOWING OR
DRIFTING. IF ANY PROBLEM AREAS DO CROP UP SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE
COVERED BY ADVISORIES.

WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LACK OF
ARCTIC AIR OTHERWISE REMAINDER LOOKS OK WITH GRADUAL END TO ANY
SNOWFALL AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

.FGF...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS ALL FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING.
VOELKER

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-181530-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
635 AM CST WED DEC 18 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD BY THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE DEVILS LAKE AND CANDO REGION WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE AMOUNTS
WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK HOWEVER NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VOELKER