Damaging Wind in North Carolina, March 16, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
150 PM EST SAT MAR 16 2002

EXCEEDINGLY TRICKY FORECAST WITH FRONT POISED TO CAMP OUT SOMEWHERE
ACROSS CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLE WEDGE DEVELOPMENT.

BERMUDA HIGH REGIME IN PLACE FOR ONE MORE DAY.  COLD FRONT TRYING TO
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT INTO
WESTERN CAROLINAS.  PARADE OF VORT CENTERS AROUND BROAD TROF IN
DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH ENERGY CHANNELED WELL NW OF THE CAROLINAS.

ETA/AVN SIMILAR IN INITIALIZING NRN STREAM ENERGY...BUT NOT MUCH TO
HANG MY HAT ON IN THE POORLY SAMPLED (BUT MORE IMPORTANT IN THE
SHORT TERM) SRN STREAM.  ALSO SEEING DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONT... ESP FROM 00Z MON ONWARD.  AVN DRAPES THE FRONT ALONG
THE VA/NC BORDER WHILE ETA HAS MORE OF A WEDGE/COASTAL FRONT
SCENARIO.

COLD FRONT TONITE IS COMPARATIVELY EASY PART OF THE FCST.  FROPA
WILL BE EITHER SIDE OF 06Z.  AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT CHC POPS
WILL COVER IT... AS MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT DEEP.  GUIDANCE LOOKS OK
FOR MIN TEMPS.

SUN HAS HIGH BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDENT ON WEDGE SETUP.  WILL SEE A
LARGE GRADIENT SOMEWHERE...POSSIBLY WITHIN ILM CWA.  WILL KEEP CHC
POPS...HIGHEST IN NRN TIER.  PROBABLY 10-15 DEG TEMP RANGE ACROSS
THE CWA.

BEST CHC FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE SUN NIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N
ACROSS THE AREA.  ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 300K IS MAXIMIZED AROUND 06Z
MON.  WILL GO LIKELY INLAND...WITH 50-60 POP ALONG COAST.  MON WILL
SEE MOST OF THE CWA IN WARM SECTOR...BUT STILL BKN SKY COVER.  WILL
OPEN RANGES IN THE 70S FOR TEMPS AND KEEP CHC POPS IN THRU MON
NIGHT.  FRONT COULD MEANDER BACK S LATE MON BEFORE LIFTING N AGAIN.

EXTENDED: RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST KEEPS THE CWA ABOVE CLIMO THRU
ABOUT MIDWEEK.  AFTER THAT IT BECOMES QUITE TRICKY.  NEW MRF HAS
TRENDED FROM JUST FLATTENING OUT THE UPPER RIDGE TO AMPLIFYING A
TROF OVER THE EAST COAST.  MEX TEMPS FOR FRI HAVE GONE FROM AROUND
70 TO MID 50S IN JUST ONE RUN.  AM VERY HESITANT TO BUY IT AFTER
JUST ONE RUN BUT HPC IS QUITE CONFIDENT IN MRF SOLUTION.  AT THIS
POINT WILL OPEN UP RANGES DOWNWARD FROM CLIMO AND LET LATER SHIFTS
CONTINUE TO TREND THE FCST COLDER IF WARRANTED.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED
SO WILL LEAVE THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY.

CWF: EXPECT TO STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU MON.  SW WINDS CLOCK
N/NE TONITE WITH FROPA...AND SHOULD GO AROUND TO E SUN PM.  WILL
FAVOR THE WARM SECTOR AVN SOLUTION FOR SUN NIGHT/MON.  IN THE
OUTLOOK WILL ADVERTISE POSSIBLE SCA EITHER SIDE OF COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSES THE AREA WED.

FCSTID = 35
ILM   57  67  58  77 /  30  40  60  30
LBT   55  62  54  72 /  40  40  70  40
FLO   57  67  56  79 /  30  40  60  30
MYR   58  68  59  73 /  30  40  60  30

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

RAS