Avalanche in Utah, March 16, 2002

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1000 AM MST SAT MAR 16 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW.

.DISCUSSION...COLD...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.  THE COLD CORE OF THE
TROUGH CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE PACIFIC NW/BRITCOL.  THIS CORE WILL
DRIFT E-SE THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES MONDAY...THEN EJECT EAST INTO THE
PLAINS STATES WITH THE TROUGH TUESDAY.

MOST OF THE PRECIP OVER THE REGION CONSISTS OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS
AT TIME.  ONE AREA OF ORGANIZED PRECIP AFFECTING EXTREME SW UTAH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAX OVER NW AZ.  WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP
INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE STATE
AS THIS VORTICITY MAX WORKS EAST ACROSS NRN AZ.  WILL UPDATE THE
EARLY MORNING PACKAGE TO ADDRESS THE HIGHER THREAT OF PRECIP.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL BRING SOME
ORGANIZATION TO THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT.   SHOWERY PRECIP A GOOD BET
THROUGH SUNDAY AS MOISTURE/LAPSE RATES.  SOME QUESTION AS TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY/STABILIZE
ALOFT.  WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR NOW BEYOND SUNDAY.

SLC 666  CDC 646  CONGER

.SLC...NONE.