Flash Flood and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
959 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2002

VIS PICS SHOWING PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLDNS ARND AGAIN THIS MORN WITH
RADAR INDICATING NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA APCHG THE FAR WRN ZONES
ATTM. THIS AREA OF SHRA LOOKS TO BE ASSOCD ALONG NOSE OF NEXT S/W
LOBE EJECTING OUT OF THE TN VLY ALONG 85H THETA AXIS THIS MORN.
EXPECT THIS BLOB OF SHRA TO LKLY AFFECT SE WVA ZONES LATER THIS MORN
BEFORE SOME HEATING BEGINS TO POP ADTNL SCTD TSRA OVER THE MTNS
GIVEN CONTG DEEP PWATS/OLD BNDRYS. APRS CVRG FROM THE NRV EWD MAY BE
LIMITED A BIT EARLY ON PER WEAK DOWNSLOPE ALOFT AND LACK OF UPR
FOCUS...THEN INCRSG BY MID AFTN AS BLYR FLOW BACKS WELL IN ADVANCE
OF UPSTREAM FRONT. THUS WILL CONT LKLY POPS OVER THE W AND AT LEAST
HIGH CHCS E ALTHO SHORT RANGE GUID QUITE LOW ON QPF E OF THE MTNS
WHERE IN BTWN S/W SUPPORT. TEMPS AGAIN TRICKY WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY
TO MORE SUN AND SCTD SHRA ESPLCY W. WITH THICKNESS A BIT COOLER THAN
WED AND MORE DEBRIS CVRG...PLAN TO LOWER TEMPS A CAT IN SPOTS FOR
THE AFTN.

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

JH
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PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

TODAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF WEDNESDAY.  DEPTH OF MOISTURE (PWATS
AOA 1.50) AND INSTABILITY (SB CAPES NR 2000) APPEAR TO BE ABOUT THE
SAME.  FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POOLING OF MOISTURE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AND PIECES OF VORT/CONVECTIVELY INDUCED ENERGY SPINNING
AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THE UPPER RIDGE.  SFC FRONT WILL ALSO BECOME
A PLAYER LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT TRYS TO DISPLACE CURRENT
AIRMASS.  BOTTOM LINE...RAISED POPS...THINKING MOST AREAS WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL HAVE BETTER THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE.  MODEL POPS AND QPF ALSO SUPPORT THIS WITH THE ETA THE
WETTEST WITH CATAGORICAL POPS AND 0.25 TO 0.50 AVG QPF.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST BEYOND FRIDAY.  THE AVN REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH SFC FRONT STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY.
HEIGHTS BUILD BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SO
DONT EXPECT ANY MAJOR COOL DOWN.  IF ANYTHING THE ONLY CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL BE A 4-8 DEG DROP IN DEWPOINT.

FCSTID = 11
ROA   88  69  85  65 /  50  50  40  10
LYH   89  69  87  67 /  40  40  40  10
DAN   89  71  87  68 /  40  40  40  10
BLF   80  65  80  60 /  60  60  40  10
LWB   79  63  80  60 /  60  60  40  10
BCB   82  65  81  61 /  60  60  50  10
TNB   80  64  80  60 /  60  60  50  30

VAZ007-009>020-022>024-033>035-045>047-WVZ042>045-272200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1245 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE AID OF HEATING...SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND VERY FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS MAY PRODUCE
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS...INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

JH