Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Indiana, June 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EST THU JUN 27 2002

FORECAST FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM.

AT 08Z A LARGE AREA OF TS/SHRA WAS ACROSS NWRN IN AND NERN
IL...MOVING SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOWER
MI TO MO. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (FA).

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AGAIN THIS RUN. AVN HAD BETTER HANDLE ON
QPF FROM CURRENT TSRA COMPLEX...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD AVN BUT MOSTLY
GO WITH A BLEND.

BIGGEST PROBLEM IS WHAT CATEGORY OF POPS TO GO FOR THE TODAY PERIOD
ACROSS THE NRN SECTION OF THE FA. CURRENT COMPLEX IS INCHING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE FA. FRONT WILL BE PAST THIS AREA BY TIME OF PEAK HEATING
TODAY...SO LOWER MOS POPS LOOK GOOD FOR LATER TODAY. WILL PROBABLY
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GO SCT WORDING FOR NRN 1/3 OF FA. WILL WAIT
RIGHT TIL ISSUANCE TIME BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION. ACROSS CENTRAL
FA...FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THIS SECTION JUST BEFORE PEAK HEATING.
WILL GO SCT WORDING WITH 50 POPS. ACROSS THE SRN FA...FRONT WILL
ARRIVE AT THE BEST TIME. THIS AREA ALSO CLOSER TO UPPER JET ENTRANCE
REGION. THEREFORE WILL GO LIKELY POPS. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN ALL
ZONES. MAV/FWC/MET TEMPS CLOSE AT MOST LOCATIONS AND LOOK REASONABLE.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA ACROSS SRN 1/2 OF FA TONIGHT AS
FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AT THAT TIME. WILL TIME AS EARLY
CENTRAL AND THRU EVENING FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND DEWPOINTS LOWER. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE CLOSE AND REASONABLE.

THERE WILL BE A DRY AND WARMING PERIOD FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME MOISTURE RETURNS BY MONDAY...BUT FEEL CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR
MON LOOKS OK.

.IND...NONE

CS