Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 5, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2002

OVERVIEW: LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIRMASS IS OPPRESSIVE AS OUR HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN IN
THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE WITH LAPS/MSAS FIELDS
INDICATING LIS AS LOW AS -10 WITH CAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG. EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AHEAD OF FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE CURRENT 40 PCT POP
WILL PROBABLY COVER THE ACTIVITY WELL. COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME SVR GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY.

SHORT TERM: FOLLOWING THE SCT TSTMS WITH THE FROPA TONIGHT...EXPECT A MUCH MORE
PLEASANT AIRMASS TO ENSUE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG COOLER.

EXTENDED: BERMUDA HIGH PRES PATTERN SETS UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME WEAK
RIPPLES IN A VERY WEAK UPPER FLOW PATTERN. NEXT CHC OF PRECIP LATE DURING
NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTH WED THRU FRI.

MARINE: AT 17Z...TROF WAS LOCATED INLAND WITH FRNTL BNDRY FARTHER N
ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER. ETA/AVN STILL SHOWING DIFFS IN TIMING
ACTUAL FRNTL BNDRY WIND SHIFT...WITH THE AVN BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN ETA. THE MAIN DIFFS ARE AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT WITH
PASSAGE OF ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON TSTMS...WL LEAN CLOSER TO AVN
AND SHIFT WINDS TO N AS FAR SOUTH AS CLKN7 BETWEEN 00-04Z. NE WINDS
THROUGHOUT ALL WTRS BY 12Z SAT...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF WEAK N-NE 15 KT
SURGE SAT MORN THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WL REMAIN
BLO SCA CRITERIA. OTHRWS...FVRBL CONDITIONS WITH NO FLAGS THRU MID
TUE WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN.

.MHX...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 00Z FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081

FCSTID =  11/17

MHX  73 85 65 88 /  40 00 00 00
EWN  73 85 65 88 /  40 00 00 00
HSE  73 83 69 84 /  40 00 00 00
PGV  72 86 66 89 /  40 00 00 00

PUBLIC/FIRE...COLLINS
MARINE/AVIATION...PETRO

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0630 PM    FORT BARNWELL             NC   0.75 IN HAIL
07/05/02   CRAVEN                         PUBLIC REPORT.

NCZ093-060100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CRAVEN COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 729 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NEW BERN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR CAYTON AT 735 PM EDT...ERNUL AT 740 PM EDT...BRIDGETON AT 755
PM EDT...NEW BERN AT 800 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY
THE STORMS INCLUDE JAMES CITY AND TUSCARORA.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

NP

NCZ090-060100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
732 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DUPLIN COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 732 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES NORTH OF
KENANSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NEAR GREENEVERS...AND...ROSE HILL AT 750 PM EDT...TEACHEY AT 755
PM EDT...WALLACE AT 800 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE
STORMS INCLUDE MAGNOLIA AND KENANSVILLE.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY
LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

NP