Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 10, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..CORECTED FOR FORECAST NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
250 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002

ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT QUICKER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT IN STRONG SWLY
FLOW. LOOP OF VAD PROFILE SHOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AS
RESULTANT WIND PUSHES INLAND WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. NUMEROUS POCKETS OF CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS FRONT SAGS INTO REGION
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF SEVERE TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT.

MODELS SIMILAR IN PUSHING FRONT S OF REGION BY 18Z THU WITH AVN
TENDING TO LAG UVVS/PCPN SLIGHTLY. REGARDLESS THINK 50% POPS OKAY
THU. FRI MORE OF A QUESTION AS UNSEASONABLY COOL WEDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS INLAND HOLDING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN IS PCPN CHANCES
AND IF SOME OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED: MODELS SIMILAR IN PUSHING COLD FRONT S OF REGION BUT
DIFFER IN EVOLUTION ON RETURN OF BOUNDARY SAT. WITH BOUNDARY IN
REGION WILL CONTINUE CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS SAT/SUN. TREND IN MRF IS NOW
FOR UPR SYS CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO UPPER MIDWEST TO SETTLE INTO
LOWER MS VLY THEN RETROGRADE TO CENTRAL PLAINS AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS
INTO SERN US AGAIN. TREND WOULD SUGGEST REDUCED PCPN CHANCES WITH
TIME AS WE MOVE INTO TUE/WED.

MARINE...WIND RUNNING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SEAS RANGING FROM 2.5 TO 3.5 FEET ACROSS OUR WATERS. BOTH THE AVN
AND ETA BRING WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD UNTIL
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z IN OUR NORTHERN WATERS TO 15Z IN THE
SOUTH. THEN A NORTHEAST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD FOR TONIGHT.

FCSTID = 1
ILM   74  81  66  81 /  70  50  40  40
LBT   72  82  64  81 /  70  50  40  40
FLO   72  85  65  82 /  70  50  40  40
MYR   74  83  67  79 /  70  50  40  40

.ILM...
NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ250-252.
SC...NONE.

PUBLIC RWA
MARINE HAWKINS

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-110200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TITLE OF PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1133 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...AND A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT HTTP://WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/ILM

HAWKINS