Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 10, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
400 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

TNGT:
SCT TSTMS GOING ONCE AGN ALG SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. ATMOS
RATHER UNSTABLE WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND 60-70 DEWPTS.  SUSPECT
STORMS WL DIMINISH AFT SUNSET...BUT STILL POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING/
ELEVATED STORMS OVNGT. SUSPECT TRUE FNT MAY HANG UP ACRS THE NRN
SXNS TNGT...ALTHO OUTFLOW/S/ WL BE MUCH FARTHER S.

THU-THU NGT:
GIVEN BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW AND COMPLEX THAT WL LKLY DVLP OVR IA
TNGT...SUSPECT FNT WL HANG SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FCST AREA.
IN FACT WNDS ACRS THE S SHUD TURN S AS OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHES OUT.
DEPENDING ON CLDS...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER...SPCLY ACRS THE S
AHD OF THE FNT.  TSTMS DURG THE AFT SHUD PUSH FNT THRU MOST OF AREA
DURG THE EVENING.  HOWEVER WITH POTENTIAL FOR  TSTMS IN THE EVE ACRS
THE S.  JUST NOW SURE EXACTLY WHERE FNT/PCPN WL BE AT 00Z.

FRI:
FNT SHUD BE OUT OF THE AREA IF CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE CORRECT.
BELIEVE MRF/AVN IS TOO COOL AND LEANED TWRD THE ECMWF 850 TEMP
/1000-500 THICNESS VALUES.

SAT-SUN:
TEMPS/THICKNESSES FM 00Z MRF AND LTST ECMWF QUITE SIMILAR THIS
PERIOD...AND GENERALLY SUPPORT GOING FCST.  ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

MON-WED:
VRY LTL IF ANY AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLES DURG THIS PD.  THE PROBLEM
STEMS FROM ORIENTATION/LOCATION OF WRN UPR RDG AND RESULTANT ERN US
TROF.  SOME PSBLTY THAT SHEAR AXIS AND/OR OLD FNT WL BE LURKING IN
THE FCST AREA...MORE LIKELY IN SE KS.  THIS MIGHT LEAD TO SCT
AFTN/EVE TSRA...BUT GIVEN AMT OF UNCERTAINTY IN ENSEMBLES...NOT ABT
TO PUT PCPN IN FCST ATTM.  WL CONT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THRUT THE
PD.

FCSTID =HOWERTON
ICT   70  90  65  86 /  40  30  20  10
HUT   69  90  65  87 /  30  20  10   5
EWK   69  89  64  86 /  30  20  10   5
EQA   69  89  64  85 /  40  20  20  10
WLD   72  92  66  86 /  40  30  20  10
RSL   66  89  64  89 /  20  10  10   5
GBD   67  89  65  89 /  20  20  10   5
SLN   66  88  64  87 /  30  10  10   5
MPR   69  89  64  86 /  30  20  10   5
CFV   71  90  65  85 /  40  40  30  10
CNU   69  88  64  84 /  40  30  20  10
K88   68  88  64  84 /  40  30  20  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ049-051>053-068>072-083-092>096-098>100-102300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAYBE POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE...ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER TODAY.
WIND PROFILES ALOFT AND HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL SUGGESTS DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...HOWEVER STILL CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AREA GREATEST AT RISK WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.

A UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IOWA TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

JAKUB