Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 10, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1110 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2002

12Z MHX SOUNDING SHOWS INCREASED MOISTURE (1.99 PW) AND INDICES
ARE REFLECTING INCREASED INSTABILITY.  COLD FRONT...NOW THROUGH
CEN VA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH...AND MOVE INTO AND THROUGH NC
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. MODELS DONT AGREE ON TIMING OF FROPA...WITH
ETA THE MORE PROGRESSIVE. LEANING TOWARD AVN SOLUTION...WITH FROPA
THRU MHX ABOUT 12Z THU.  CURRENT PRECIP IS CONFINED TO THE NE CORNER
OF THE STATE. MAJOR CHANGES NOT REQUIRED TO ZFP....WILL ADDRESS
AFTERNOON WORDING AND EMPHASIZE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS LATER
TODAY.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFT FROPA DCNT SFC RDG BLDS OVR AREA THU. THEN FRNT STARTS TO MV
BACK N FRI AFTN AND BCMS MR N/S ORIENTED AS ANTHR WV FORMS ON IT.
THIS IN EFFECT WL KP FRONT OVR AREA INTO EARLY NXT WK AS UPR LO THAT
IS TRYING TO CUT OFF FROM MAIN SYS MEANDERS ARND TO OUR W AND
BERMUDA HIGH TRIES TO BLD BACK IN TO OUR S.

CWF...MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE TO DROP SCA FOR THE NRN
WATERS AND SOUNDS TO SCEC. WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW ADVY LEVELS AND
CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS TO DECREASE FLOW TO 15 TO 20 KT IN REGION OF
WEAKER P-GRAD ASCTD WITH DEVELOPING WEAK FRONTAL WAVE LATER TODAY.
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS NOT SO CLEAR CUT. FPSN HAS BEEN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS BUT RECEIVED A REPORT FROM THE WOOTEN AT THE MONITOR
RECOVERY AREA (SE OF DSNL) OF 25-30 KT AND 5-6 FOOT SEAS. THIS
MATCHES UP WITH REPORTED WIND SPEEDS FROM DSNL OFF THE WEB. IN
ADDITION 06Z MESO-ETA AND THE 06Z AVN ALL SHOW AN INC IN PREFRONTAL
SW FLOW S OF HAT...ESP THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING SFC PRES
INLAND WITH DEVELOPING LOW. THUS WILL KEEP SCA FOR THE WATERS S OF
HAT INTACT DESPITE LACK OF STRONG SUPPORT IN THE LIMITED OBS
NETWORK. STILL SIG DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF FROPA BUT THERE IS
AGREEMENT IN A PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF NE FLOW TO SCA LEVELS FOLLOWING
THE FRONT.

.MHX...SCA S OF CAPE HATTERAS.

PRINGLE/ELARDO

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-102100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
1020 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TODAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND HEATING WILL ACT TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 58 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AS ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
LATE TODAY.

KEEP ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THREATENING WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF YOU BEGIN TO HEAR THUNDER...THAT IS THE
TIME TO CONSIDER SEEKING SHELTER. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND INFORMATION...OR TUNE TO LOCAL
MEDIA TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER TRENDS.

18

NCZ044-091-101830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
150 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PITT AND LENOIR COUNTIES UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

AT 150 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES WEST OF
GREENVILLE TO MOSS HILL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR GREENVILLE AT 155 PM EDT...KINSTON AT 200
PM EDT..

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

JO

NCZ090-101900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
158 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DUPLIN COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 158 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF
WARSAW...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR WARSAW AT 205 PM EDT...KENANSVILLE AT 220 PM EDT...KORNEGAY AT
235 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE
ALBERTSON...BEULAVILLE...BOWDENS...CHINQUAPIN...GREENEVERS AND
MAGNOLIA.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

JO

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
218 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    HOOKERTON                 NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/10/02   GREENE                         SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN
                                          HOOKERTON REPORTED BY
                                          SKYWARN SPOTTER.

NCZ091-101915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
240 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LENOIR COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 240 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER LA GRANGE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR KINSTON
AT 300 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE
DAWSON...GRANGERS AND MOSS HILL.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
STORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

MC

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
319 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    HOOKERTON                 NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/10/02   GREENE                         SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN
                                          HOOKERTON REPORTED BY
                                          SKYWARN SPOTTER.

0230 PM    GREENVILLE                NC   0.75 IN HAIL
07/10/02   PITT                           REPORTED BY PITT COUNTY
                                          911.