Hail and Lightning Strike in North Carolina, July 1, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2002

A WEAK TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE...AND AVAILABLE ENERGY ALOFT WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.  CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AND SOME EARLY MORNING STRATUS SHOULD KEEP SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.  LOWS NEAR 70 APPEAR REASONABLE.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODEL LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAK TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC...MAINTAINS HIGH DEW POINT AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
THREAT OF DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE AREA LAST FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. CHANCES APPEAR GREATER
NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
AT SHOWING MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE EACH DAY
AND LOWS NEAR 70 TO LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ON 4TH OF JULY AND FRIDAY...THERE APPEARS TO BE A NET DIVERGENCE OF
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER CENTRAL NC AS NOTED AT 850...SUBSIDENCE
WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE.  THOUGH WITH
HOT AIR AND HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...AND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS...DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED WITH THIS LARGER SCALE PATTERN.  HIGHS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH LOWER 90S WITH LOWS NEAR 70.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY...A BACKDOOR SURGE OF AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST MAY DRY THE AIRMASS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER
THE AREA WITH INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF DIURNAL CONVECTION BELOW
FORECAST MINIMUMS.

.RAH...NONE.

RFG