High Wind in North Carolina, February 4, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 PM EST MON FEB 4 2002

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE AND USING BLEND FOR FCST.
VIGOROUS SHRT WV WILL CROSS AREA FROM NW THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH MAIN
EFFECT BEING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA. MODEL SFC WIND FCSTS
INDICATING 25-35 MPH WINDS OVER MOST OF AREA AND WILL POST WIND
ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES FOR NOON TO MIDNIGHT. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE SEEN BUT MSTR LIMITED AND
ANY SHOWER ACTVTY TO REMAIN N OF ALBEMARLE SOUND. STRONG NW WINDS
WILL ALSO POSE THREAT OF SOUND FLOODING ON SOUTHERN OUTER
BANKS...BUT DURATION AND STRENGTH SHOULD LIMIT RISE IN WATER LEVELS
TO 3 FEET OR LESS. THIS JUST BELOW COASTAL FLOOD CRITERIA BUT ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN OUTER BANKS ZONE.

ZONAL FLOW AND BUILDING HTS FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...THEN SRN PLAINS
SHRT WV WILL AFFECT AREA WED-THU. MRF NOW COMING AROUND TO AVN
SOLUTION WITH GULFMEX SFC LOW MOVING NE UP SE ATLC COAST...WITH PSBL
PTYPE PROBLEMS INLAND DURING PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FCST
OF CHC RAIN/SNOW INLAND WED AND WED NIGHT WITH RAIN FOR COAST. GIVEN
CONSISTENCY OF AVN AND MRF COMING IN LINE...WILL ADD POPS TO THU AS
WELL.

WILL GO ABOVE GDNC TEMPS TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUN. CONSENSUS MOS BLEND ACCEPTED FOR REST OF PERIOD.

FIRE WX: MIN RH NOT EXPECTED TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTN BUT
WILL POST FIRE WX WATCH FOR STRONG WINDS AND DRY FUELS.

CWF: INTENSE PRES GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WITH CAA SURGE THIS AFTN AND
EVE AND GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ENTIRE AREA...AND STORM FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE LIKELY FOR HIGHER TOWERS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT AND TUE.

.MHX...GALE WARNING CSTL WTRS AND SNDS.
    ...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ENTIRE CWA.
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ENTIRE CWA.

JBM