Flash Flood in North Carolina, August 28, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2002

OVERVIEW: UPR LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE E KY/E TN REGION.
SFC BOUNDARY HAS WORKED INLAND TO THE CSTL PLAINS AND IS SERVING
AS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHORT TERM: BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHETHER OR NOT TO GO WITH A
FLOOD WATCH. ETA/AVN DIFFER ON AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. AVN IS FURTHER
INLAND WITH ITS OMEGA FIELDS...WHILE ETA IS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
BOTH MODELS CERTAINLY SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HRS GIVEN GOOD H8 THETA-E AXIS AND H3-H2 DIVERGENCE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL OVER 2 INCHES THRU THE PERIOD.
RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE HEAVIER
RAINFALL REMAINING OVER ERN OF RAHS CWA AND WRN SECTIONS OF
ILMS...WHILE HVY RAIN OVER OUR AREA IS LIMITED TO THE OUTER BANKS.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN HIGH OVER OUR CWA...SO UNLESS WE
GET SOME SUSTAINED ECHO TRAINING...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL REMAINS
LOW. AT THIS POINT...WILL FOREGO FLOOD WATCH AND LET DAYSHIFT
MONITOR. POPS WILL BE IN THE HIGH LIKELY RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
WILL MENTION HVY RAINFALL IN ZFP. LITTLE CHG IN TEMPS WITH 80 TO 83
FOR HIGHS AND 72 TO 75 FOR LOWS.

EXTENDED: WILL RAISE POPS A LTL FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE
MOISTURE A LTL SLOWER TO MOVE OUT. DEEPER MOISTURE SHOWS SIGNS OF
BEING SHUNTED TO THE WEST BY THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS WEST
FROM BERMUDA.

MARINE: INHERITED A WELL THOUGHT OUT FCST. THE MARINE TALENT IS
THIS OFFICE DOES STAGGER ME SOMETIMES. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO SCALE
BACK 1ST PERIOD SEAS TO 4 BLDG TO 5 FEET AND DELAY ONSET OF SCA COND
UNTIL TNGT. CURRENT WINDS IN THE MHX WATERS A BIT BELOW AVN
MAGNITUDE BUT ONCE BERMUDA RDG NUDGES W...THERELL BE NOTHING TO
STAVE OFF THE EXPANSIVE SE FETCH THAT WILL TRANSLATE ALL THE WAY TO
THE SANDS OF THE OBX AND CRYSTAL COAST. IN FACT IF ONE DREW A LINE
FROM CAPE HATTERAS SE UNTIL THE WAVE DIRECTION WAS NO LONGER SE TO
NW...THE ENDPOINT WOULD LEAVE YOU IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF
ANGOLA IN WEST CENTRAL AFRICA. THIS EXPLAINS SOME OF THE UNCANNY
SWELL PERIODS WE HAVE SEEN EMINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.
LIKE CURRENT REASONING OF 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS INTO LATE WEEK...THEN A
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF SEA HEIGHTS TO 5 FEET SOMETIME SUNDAY. DUE
TO INCREASING ONSHORE WIND TODAY COUPLED WITH LONG PERIOD SE TRAJ
WAVE ENERGY...WILL RETAIN INCREASED RIP CURRENT THREAT ALL MHX
BEACHES TODAY.

MHX...NONE

FCSTID =  11/15

MHX  83 73 82 74 /  70 70 60 60
EWN  83 73 82 74 /  70 70 60 60
HSE  83 73 83 73 /  70 70 60 60
PGV  81 73 83 73 /  70 70 60 60

PUBLIC/FIRE...COLLINS
MARINE/AVIATION...COLBY