Tornado and Flash Flood in Colorado, August 28, 2002

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
340 AM MDT WED AUG 28 2002

ONLY A FEW CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.  IT LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
BENIGN DAY AS FAR AS FORCING FOR CONVECTION...AS JET STREAKS APPEAR
TO BE PUTTING THE MAIN AREAS OF LIFT NORTH AND SOUTH OF US TODAY.
SE SURFACE WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL PERSIST...AND BOUNDARY NOW
DROPPING INTO NERN CO COULD BE A FOCUS BUT WILL LIKELY BE LIFTING
BACK TOWARD THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL
ESTABLISHED POOL OF COOL MOIST AIR NOW...BUT THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
MORE SUNSHINE SO BY EVENING THE RESULT WILL BE SIMILAR.  CAPES LOOK
TO WIND UP IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE AND THOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF SHEAR...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN CONCERN.  MOUNTAINS ARE DRYING OUT AGAIN...STILL SOME MOISTURE
IN OUR ZONES BUT BONE DRY ON THE WEST SLOPE AGAIN.  THE DRY AIR WILL
LIKELY BE MIXING DOWN ALONG WITH A BIT OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
ON THU SW WINDS ALOFT BRING THE DRY AIR A BIT FARTHER EAST...BUT A
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE SHOULD BRING ENOUGH LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF LATE DAY STORMS.  AS THE MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST ON THE PLAINS
THERE WILL STILL BE A SEVERE THREAT.  BEHIND THIS WAVE FRI SHOULD BE
DRIER AND SUBSIDENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.

FOR SAT THROUGH TUE WE WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY DRY W TO SW FLOW
ALOFT.  WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH DRYING TO SHUT DOWN CONVECTION OVER
THE EAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE.      GIMMESTAD

.DEN...NONE.