Damaging Wind in North Carolina, August 16, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2002

MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER AREA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING OVER MTNS. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON FFC AND GSO SOUNDINGS
VCNTY 2 INCHES. ETA AND AVN SHOW VERY WEAK SHRTWV/PVA MOVING OVER
AREA TONIGHT AND AVN HAS AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
PASSING OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO KEEP CONVECTION
GOING WITH THIS AIRMASS SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT...MAY EVEN GO 60...WILL WAIT TIL LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE.
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY...A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY...EVEN LESS MONDAY. KEEPING SCT POPS IN FCST THRU SUN NIGHT.
AFTER FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...DRYER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.

FCSTID = 77
GSP   71  89  70  91 /  50  50  40  30
AND   71  89  71  92 /  50  50  40  30
CLT   71  90  70  92 /  50  50  40  30
HKY   70  88  69  90 /  50  50  40  30
AVL   66  83  66  85 /  60  50  50  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

RB

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-170200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE
UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST...AND THE THREAT OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ALL AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS...AND LOCAL FLOODING COULD POSSIBLY RESULT.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED LAST NIGHT IN
PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS.  IT IS
POSSIBLE A SIMILAR EPISODE COULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WEAK FEATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
ATMOSPHERE COULD MOVE OVER THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS...SETTING OFF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WHICH CAN CAUSE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME.

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...SOME AREAS CAN RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
OF UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS RECEIVE LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS...CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY EVEN DURING A DROUGHT...WHEN EXCESSIVE RAIN FALLS ON GROUND
WHICH IS HARD PACKED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF RAIN...OR ON GROUND
SATURATED BY THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS RAIN.  IT IS POSSIBLE A FLOOD WATCH
OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

WHILE THESE TYPES OF RAIN SYSTEMS BRING BENEFICIAL RAIN...AND
PROVIDE SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT...THEY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON THE PERSISTENT LONG TERM DROUGHT.

JONES