Tornado and Hail in Minnesota, August 16, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

EMPHASIS ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT AND STRONG WINDS ON SAT.
SIGNIFICANT S/W TRACKING EWD ACRS NRN MT...JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
MODEL GUIDANCE.  SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S TO NR 70 SURGING NWD TWD
CNTRL SODAK...JUST AHEAD OF SFC 999MB LOW PRES...WHICH IS CLOSER TO
ETA FORECAST.  EXPC SFC LOW PRES TO CONT DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS
NEWD.  SFC WRMFNT HELD BACK OVR ERN NE INTO SRN SODAK DUE TO AFTN
CONVECTION ACRS ERN SODAK.  SODAK CONVECTION FORMED ON STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AND IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES TWD SWRN MN...HOWEVER LATEST WDL PROFILE
SHOWING INCREASING SLY WNDS TO 20 TO 25KTS IN LOWEST GATES.  SCT
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE OVR FAR WEST CENTRAL MN AS WELL.  STG
ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH RAPID INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE.
RUC 85H THETA E ADVECTION BULLSEYES ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH...AND ADVECTION INCREASES AND PUSHES ACRS MN CWA THRU EVE.
STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN SPREADS
INTO AREA LATER TONIGHT WHEN ONGOING SQUALL LN AND POSSIBLE DERECHO
THREAT PUSHES IN FM DAKOTAS.

6 TO 10MB PRES RISES FOLLOWS ON HEELS OF STG COLD FNT INTO WRN CWA
LTR TNGT.  ETA BUFKIT SHOWS 39 KTS JUST OFF THE SFC LATE TNGT AT
KAXN SO WL ISSUE WIND ADVY FOR LATE TNGT INTO SAT MRNG FOR WRN
AREAS.  WL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT CONSIDER EXPANDING ADVY FARTHER EAST
WITH MIDNIGHT ZONE ISSUANCE.  SFC GRADIENT LOOSENS AND CORE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION SLIDES RAPIDLY EWD WITH STRONGEST PRES RISES ACRS NRN
MN. DRY AIR ENGULF RGN DURING WEEKEND AND LINGERS INTO MON.
MOISTURE RETURN TUE INTO TUE NGT AS EMBEDDED WAVE IN ZONAL FLOW
MOVES ACRS UPR MIDWEST.  ENSEMBLE PRECIP PROBS SHOW HIGH VALUES FOR
TUE INTO EARLY WED.
.MSP...WIND ADVISORY WEST LATE TNGT INTO SAT MRNG.
MBK

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-170200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
500 PM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

...RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKED RIPE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK TO DEVELOP MINNESOTA. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WILL BE
INITIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.  PERSONS LIVING
NEAR MORRIS...BENSON...GRANITE FALLS...REDWOOD FALLS...AND FAIRMONT
WILL WANT TO LISTEN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS AND MOVE TO SHELTER
QUICKLY.

THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS. DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...WIND GUSTS
TONIGHT WITH THE SEVERE STORMS COULD APPROACH 80 MPH.  AN AREA OR
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT.

SPOTTERS AND THE PUBLIC ALIKE SHOULD KEEP UP ON THE LATEST
STATEMENTS...WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TONIGHT...VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM.

EDWARDS