High Wind in New York, March 3, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
330 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2002

WORKZONES AVAILABLE.

.DISC...STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING MARCH WEATHER BACK ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. THIS FRONT WILL ROAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SO FAR...NO DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS WITH THE FROPA...STRONGEST HAVE BEEN AROUND 40 KTS. SOME HEAVY
RAIN...NO THUNDER (AS OF YET) BUT THE BIGGEST DEAL WITH THE FRONT IS
A MARKED CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WITH IT DROPPING WELL OVER 10 DEGS IN
A MATTER OF MINUTES WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED A NEW RECORD HIGH HERE
AT ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE HISTORY SOON.

WILL ADD AN EARLY NIGHT PERIOD TO THE FORECAST TO BRIDGE THE
GAP...OF WHEN THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE. WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS EXTREMELY MINIMAL...WILL ADD A RUMBLE OF THUNDER AND LET IT GO
AT THAT.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...ANOTHER SHOT OF BONIFIED ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. SINCE THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS AIR MASS IS MORE NWRLY...THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR MODIFICATION. TEMPS COOL TO
-18C AT H8 AND EVENTUALLY -25 AT H7 WITH THE SFC-H7 MEAN WIND FLOW
BETWEEN 280-300 LOOKS AS IF THE LAKE GUNS WILL EVENTUALLY GET INTO
THE ACT...AND AIDED BY A PROGGED VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
BY 12Z MON. FOR THE ABOVE REASONS...HAVE GONE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE BUT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
TONIGHT...MON AND MON NITE. BY TUE...THE LOW LEVEL STEEP LAPSE RATE
INCREASES WHICH MEANS A POSSIBLE WINDEX EVENT...HOWEVER THE WINDS
BACK TO ABOUT A 240 VECTOR SO ANY LAKE EFFECT HEADS WELL NORTH.   BY
TUE...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...EXCEPT NORTH WHERE THE SW
FLOW MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. WILL KEEP THE CHC OF
SNOW SHOWERS GOING UP THERE.

THE WHOLE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND TURNS THE WIND SW BY WED.
HOWEVER...NOW...YET ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR...MAY ATTEMPT TO
DROP DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY HALTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP. A BOUNDARY MAY SET UP TO OUR SOUTH...AND MAY
BECOME MOISTURE LATENT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR THIS GO ROUND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN WITH THE REWARD WINNING MAV
NOS. THE FWC LOOKS TOO COLD (AT LEAST LOCALLY) FOR MON NITE DUE TO
LE CLOUDS STILL A BIT OF WIND...AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF AN
EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK...SOUTH OF WARRENSBURG.

.ALY...NONE.

HWJIV